News

Market snapshot

• Stocks: U.S. stocks were mostly lower last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.65%, the Russell 2000 Index declined 1.47%, and the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.06%. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.73%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.96% to 5.01% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold rose 0.68% last week, closing above $4,300 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: FPI’s market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks remain relatively close to the all-time highs set in mid-August. Strong corporate earnings, including contributions from technology and semiconductor companies benefiting from AI-related investment, have helped support the market despite continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Investors continue to focus on whether AI-related investment can translate into sustained productivity and earnings growth. The upcoming midterm elections could also affect the market outlook by changing the balance of power in Congress and influencing future legislative priorities.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasurys, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bonds remained under pressure as oil prices rose and inflation concerns persisted. Higher energy costs can feed into inflation, reducing the purchasing power of a bond’s fixed interest payments and potentially leading investors to demand higher yields. The recent rise in bond yields put the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since July 2007, the last time the yield was above 5.00%.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points last week, to 3.75%–4.00%, in a unanimous decision. It was the Fed’s first rate increase in about three years. Markets were also pricing in the possibility of another increase at the Fed’s October meeting, as shown in the CME FedWatch chart below.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week 200% net long the S&P 500. Exposure fell to 150% net long on Monday and returned to 200% net long on Tuesday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy remained defensive throughout the week. The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy began the week 140% net long the NASDAQ 100 and reduced exposure to 120% net long on Friday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy began the week 120% net long the S&P 500 Index. Exposure fell to 90% net long on Wednesday and returned to 120% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal remained 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so the investment positions may at times exceed 100%.

Our Classic model remained in stocks throughout last week. Most of our Classic accounts follow a signal that will allow the strategy to change exposure in as little as a week. A few accounts are on platforms that are more restrictive and can take up to one month to generate a new signal.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure is one of our Market Regime Indicators. It shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a Low and Falling reading, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. The combination has occurred 32% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 9/14/26

Tue, 15 Sep 2026 02:39:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: U.S. stocks moved lower last week. The S&P 500 fell 0.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.56%, the NASDAQ Composite declined 0.63%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.38%.

• Fixed income: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.78% to 4.97% last week.

• Gold and commodities: Gold fell 1.83% for the week.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Small-caps led the market lower last week. The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.38%, roughly three times the S&P 500 Index’s 0.78% decline. Because smaller companies tend to be more sensitive to economic and financing conditions, their sharper decline suggested a more defensive tone among investors.

Market breadth was also weak. Only two of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by Energy with a 2.06% gain.

Bespoke Investment Group noted in its August 21 report that, with earnings season behind the market, investor focus would shift back to the economy, the Federal Reserve, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Bespoke also observed that recent economic data had been positively biased, especially in manufacturing, but that historically this has not always been the best backdrop for equities. Stronger economic data can support corporate earnings, but it can also push interest rates higher and give the Fed less reason to lower them. Investors then have to weigh firmer growth against higher borrowing costs.

Last week’s decline did not break the longer-term trend. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed Friday above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, SPY finished less than 1% above its 50-day average, leaving the shorter-term trend closer to being tested if selling continues.

Bespoke also noted in its August 21 report that the market still had to navigate September and October. With the 50-day average nearby and a busy stretch of economic data ahead, that seasonal backdrop may warrant some caution in the weeks ahead.

Fixed income

Bonds offered little diversification last week. Rates rose sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing from 4.78% to 4.97%, pushing Treasury prices lower as stocks also declined.

Treasury ETFs reflected that pressure. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) both finished below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating continued weakness in both intermediate- and long-term Treasurys. TLT remains further below its 200-day average than IEF, reflecting greater pressure at the long end of the curve. Longer maturities are more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

Bespoke Investment Group noted in its August 28 report, before last week’s move, that the Adrian-Crump-Moench model showed the 10-year Treasury term premium—the extra return investors demand for holding longer-term bonds—had remained relatively stable, while the portion of the yield tied to expected future short-term rates had risen. Bespoke also noted that long-term inflation expectations remained stable. Taken together, the data suggested that recent moves in long-term yields were being driven more by expectations for future interest rates than by rising inflation concerns or greater bond-market risk aversion.

That distinction matters for positioning. Expectations for higher policy rates can push borrowing costs higher across the economy, putting pressure on both stocks and bonds.

Gold and commodities

Gold also offered little portfolio diversification last week. Stocks and Treasury prices declined, while gold fell 1.83% and COMEX gold futures declined 1.51%.

The U.S. dollar index slipped just 0.05%, leaving the currency essentially unchanged. A stronger dollar can weigh on gold because the metal is priced in dollars, making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. With the dollar largely flat, however, currency strength offered little explanation for gold’s decline.

Interest rates may have played a larger role. Because gold pays no interest, rising Treasury yields can make interest-bearing assets relatively more attractive. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed last week, creating a less favorable backdrop for gold. This is a general market relationship, though, not a measured cause of last week’s move.

On the technical side, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) finished the week above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average, leaving the fund between its short- and long-term trend lines.

FPI’s gold fund followed the metal lower. The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (QGLDX) fell 2.03% for the week. As its name suggests, the fund is designed to track gold futures, so a down week for gold shows up directly in its return. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

The indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy (QSPMX) increased its equity exposure as the week progressed. It began the week 90% net long, moved to 130% on Tuesday, 170% on Wednesday, and 190% on Thursday, and ended the week 200% net long.

The QFC Political Seasonality Index began the week in its risk-on posture and moved to risk-off on Tuesday’s close, where it remained for the week. The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies remained varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments—participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy remained 140% long throughout the week. The Systematic Advantage strategy remained 120% long throughout the week. The QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy remained in cash for the week. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Our Classic model was fully risk-on all week. Most Classic accounts follow a signal that can change exposure within a week, though a few remain on platforms requiring up to a month to adjust to new signals.

Market Update 9/8/26

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 02:55:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: U.S. stocks were mostly higher last week. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.42%, the Russell 2000 Index rose 0.15%, the S&P 500 Index gained 0.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.73% to 4.78% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold fell 0.56% last week but remained above $4,400 an ounce.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks remain near record highs despite the continued rise in oil prices. Crude oil moved above $90 a barrel last week, returning to levels seen when geopolitical tensions increased in the spring. Companies may have some ability to pass higher input costs on to consumers, which could help explain the relatively muted reaction in stock prices to the recent oil surge.

AI may also be providing support. Companies across the economy are adopting new technologies in an effort to increase productivity and profitability. Second-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 were strong, with semiconductor companies contributing to earnings growth as demand for the chips needed to support AI expansion remained elevated.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term U.S. Treasurys, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bonds remained under pressure last week, continuing the weakness that began in late February. The recent rise in oil prices could add to inflation expectations, although recent inflation readings have not shown meaningful acceleration. For now, investors are still waiting to see whether higher energy costs begin to show up more clearly in the data.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet next week. Current expectations are split between no change in rates and a quarter-point increase, with CME FedWatch assigning a higher probability to a hike. A rate increase would suggest that the Federal Reserve is taking a more proactive approach to containing inflation and keeping it closer to its long-term goal of 2%.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week 60% net long the S&P 500. Exposure increased to 110% net long on Monday, 160% net long on Tuesday, and 190% net long on Wednesday before falling to 110% net long on Thursday and ending the week 90% net long.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was defensive at the start of the week, then shifted aggressively on Tuesday. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—including all the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy remained 140% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

The Systematic Advantage strategy began the week 120% net long the S&P 500 Index. Exposure fell to 90% net long on Tuesday and returned to 120% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal began the week 200% net long the NASDAQ 100 and moved to 0% net long on Tuesday.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Market Update 8/31/26

Tue, 01 Sep 2026 02:34:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: U.S. stocks finished mixed last week. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.50%, the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.85%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.55%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 Index fell 1.46%.

• Fixed income: Treasury yields moved lower last week. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.735% to 4.720%, while intermediate- and long-term Treasury bonds remained in a downtrend.

• Gold and commodities: Gold fell 3.21% last week, while the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.91%. Crude oil also weakened over the trailing five sessions.

• Market indicators and outlook: FPI’s tactical strategies were generally positioned long during the week as they tried to identify trends based on their underlying algorithms. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed last week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, maintaining its longer-term uptrend.

However, market participation was relatively narrow: Only four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher for the week, led by Information Technology, which gained 1.80%. Because the Index is weighted by market capitalization, gains in a few of its largest sectors can push the S&P 500 higher even when most sectors lose ground.

Bespoke Investment Group noted in its August 21 report that dispersion, or how differently individual stocks move from one another, had fallen from near-record highs. Historically, lower dispersion has been a constructive signal for stocks, though September and October have often been seasonally challenging. That combination may warrant some caution heading into the seasonally weaker months.

Fixed income

Bonds remained in a downtrend last week even as the 10-year yield edged lower. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) both closed below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that their longer-term trends remained weak. The 10-year Treasury yield fell modestly, from 4.735% to 4.720%.

Bespoke Investment Group’s August 28 report showed that the two-year Treasury yield has been relatively steady over the past six months despite above-target inflation and continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Bespoke’s August 27 market dashboard showed relatively modest changes in credit spreads. Corporate spreads registered a 10-day rate of change of 2.0 and a 50-day reading of 7.0, while high-yield spreads registered readings of -2.0 and -1.0, respectively. A credit spread is the extra yield a corporate bond pays over a Treasury security of similar maturity, while the rate of change measures how quickly that spread is widening or narrowing. Those relatively small readings on both the investment-grade and the high-yield sides suggest that credit spreads were not showing signs of significant stress heading into month-end.

Gold and commodities

Gold gave back much of its recent gains last week, falling 3.21%. COMEX gold futures slipped 3.22%. At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.91%.

A stronger dollar can weigh on gold by making the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. However, the dollar’s move was a fraction of the metal’s decline, so most of the work was done by bullion itself.

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) closed last week at $408.89—above its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day average. That is a crack in the trend, not a break.

Crude oil also weakened over the trailing five sessions. Bespoke Investment Group’s August 27 market snapshot listed West Texas Intermediate crude oil at $83.61 and showed a negative five-day move. The stronger dollar may also have weighed on crude prices, though the data does not establish it as the sole driver.

For investors, the broader commodity complex offered little offset to gold’s weakness. The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund returned -3.57% for the week, close to gold’s own move and a reminder that a dedicated gold allocation can experience the full impact of a sharp decline in the metal. Gold can play an important diversification role, but it does not provide protection in every market environment.

The indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started the week 150% long, reduced exposure to 110% on Monday, returned to 150% on Tuesday, reduced exposure to 120% on Thursday, and ended the week only 60% long.

The QFC Political Seasonality Index began the week in its risk-off posture, moved to risk-on on Monday, and returned to risk-off on Wednesday’s close. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category).

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies have been varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments—participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 160% long and moved to 140% long on Friday’s close. The Systematic Advantage strategy remained 120% long throughout the week. The QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy started the week in cash and moved to 200% long on Wednesday, where it remained through Friday. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Flexible Plan’s Growth and Inflation measure, one of our Market Regime Indicators, shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a Low and Rising reading, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. The combination has occurred 22% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 8/24/26

Tue, 25 Aug 2026 02:07:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: The major U.S. stock market indexes fell last week. The NASDAQ Composite lost 2.02%, the Russell 2000 declined 1.61%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.39%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.78%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.68% to 4.74% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold rose 5.18% last week, closing above $4,600 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Despite last week’s decline, stocks remain near the highs set in August. AI enhancements remain the top focus, with semiconductor stocks posting strong gains in 2026 despite a recent pullback. Semiconductors are a key component of the hardware that powers AI infrastructure. That infrastructure has the potential to create large productivity gains across industries, possibly leading to higher profits throughout the economy.

Second-quarter earnings have indeed been strong. According to FactSet, the S&P 500’s blended year-over-year earnings growth rate is 50.4%. If that rate holds, it would be the highest rate of earnings growth since 2021. The S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio now sits above its five-year and 10-year averages.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bonds remain in a downtrend. A resurgence in oil prices could be stoking inflation fears and causing investors to demand higher yields to lend money through bond purchases. Yields also remain elevated compared with levels at the start of the decade, and persistent inflation fears are an obstacle to those coming down.

The Federal Open Market Committee did not have a scheduled rate-setting meeting in August. Its next meeting is in mid-September. The committee took a more hawkish tilt at its last meeting in July. Market expectations for September are divided between the Fed holding rates steady and raising them, with CME FedWatch currently showing a decent chance of either outcome at the next meeting.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 10% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 40% net long on Monday, 110% net long on Tuesday, 180% net long on Wednesday, 110% net long on Thursday, and 150% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was aggressive at the start of the week and shifted to a defensive stance on Tuesday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with 120% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 100% net long on Monday, 140% net long on Wednesday, and 160% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy held 120% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.

Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal started the week with 200% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 0% net long on Monday.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Rising reading, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. The combination has occurred 28% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 8/17/26

Tue, 18 Aug 2026 02:36:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: The major indexes posted modest gains last week. The S&P 500 Index finished up 0.4%, the NASDAQ rose 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.1%.

• Bonds: Bonds struggled. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) dipped 0.1%, and the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 0.9%.

• Gold: Gold futures closed the week at $4,429.10, up $29.40 per ounce, or 0.67%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.10%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Short-term technical indicators are mostly negative for stocks. The economic environment is classified as Normal, favoring stocks and gold from a return perspective. Volatility is High and Rising, a regime historically favorable for stocks over other asset classes on a return basis.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The S&P 500 Index made new all-time highs again this week, so the long-term uptrend certainly appears to be in place. The large-cap index’s move higher was accompanied by new highs in several other stock indexes, including mid-cap, small-cap, equal-weight, value, and growth indexes.

Notably absent were the NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100, where such a high-water mark remains elusive. This was also the case for more predictive indexes such as the Dow Jones Transportation Average and S&P Semiconductors, which often lead the other indexes. They are at their 50-day moving averages (MAs) but still lagging.

Introducing a new market measure—our six-factor MA index. This measure is presented for educational purposes and is not intended to be used as a stand-alone trading indicator. The measure looks at the historical look-forward results associated with the positioning of the six factors each day with respect to each other over the following 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, and 20 days. On August 17, all six factors were positive for the S&P 500, but they yielded only a slight positive edge. The best was at 20 days, with 60% of trades since 1927 being positive. Even then, the return still failed to beat the market’s average 20-day return. For the NASDAQ 100 Index, only five of six factors were positive, but that trade would have done better: 66.85% of the trades since inception were positive after 20 days, with returns 50% better than the average 20-day market period.

There have been good reasons for the market’s gains so far in August, starting with second-quarter company reports. Earnings and revenue numbers have beaten analyst forecasts at 76% and 75% of companies, respectively, compared with 10-year averages of just 67% and 65%. Among S&P 500 companies, the results were even better, with 86% beating earnings estimates and 76% beating revenue estimates for the quarter.

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was just in line with expectations, but it provided a significant lift to markets. The 2.5% year-over-year core inflation reading was especially well received, as it was the lowest mark since March 2021. Last year, it was over 3% and is down from over 6% in the Biden years.

There was some negative news. Retail sales were down 0.6%, while expectations had been for a 0.1% increase. This was quickly explained away by the timing of Amazon Prime Day, which occurred in July last year but in June this year, causing the July decline in retail sales.

Also on the negative side, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment continued to slide, as it has for the last year and a half. This was offset by a new Small Business Optimism reading that jumped to an 11-month high. Existing-home sales also beat expectations.

As you know, I’m a big fan of market seasonality analysis. It’s based on a secret the whole market knows about, but it just keeps working. U.S. Global Investors recently highlighted both sides of the midterm-election seasonal pattern. First, the period leading up to Election Day has historically been challenging:

“Since 1962, every one of the 16 midterm cycles saw a decline between mid-August and Election Day. Not most of them. All of them. The average drawdown was 8.1%, and 10 of the 16 put in their low in October.”

But the pattern following midterm elections has historically been much stronger:

“In the 12 months following every midterm election since 1962, the S&P 500 has been higher. Sixteen elections, 16 gains at 14.2% on average. The narrowest was 1986 at just 1.1%, and that 12-month window contained the October 1987 crash. It still finished in the black.”

The yin and yang of stock market investing.

The bottom line: The market is bordering on overbought territory, on a price basis but not yet on an advance/decline basis. The VIX, often called the fear index, is very low but nearing a point where it tends to bounce higher. I’m looking for an increase in volatility. If it is not to the downside and stocks move higher, it looks like the NASDAQ will outperform—that is, before a possible September reckoning.

Bonds

Bond yields remain above their moving averages, although they have improved from the recent high reached just a few days ago.

As discussed in the Stocks section above, the CPI data was well received and provided some relief from rate-hike concerns. Still, yields remain in their long-term uptrend, and bond prices have continued to trend lower.

Our new six-factor MA index has all TLT factors moving lower. While none of the forecasts hit our significance mark, the 10-day negative reading is the strongest. Historically, the worst drawdown from this factor positioning has been 9.24%.

The ETF representing the high-yield bond market sector (HYG) moved to new highs as stocks advanced. High interest rates may have scared away traditional government bond investors, but that has not been the case for corporate bond investors. In fact, investments in corporate bonds so far in August have already surpassed the previous all-time high for a full month.

Gold

Gold gained ground last week as the monthlong rally continued. The six-factor MA index supports a move even higher, pointing to a statistically significant gain over the next 10 trading days. While only three of the six indicators were positive, they historically yielded a 71.5% win rate over the following 10 trading days, compared with gold’s average 10-day win rate of just 55.8%.

On the fundamental front, China reportedly purchased 640,000 ounces of gold in July, up from 480,000 ounces in June. That’s the most since October 2023. Purchases have been more than double those for all of 2025. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea made its first gold-linked investment in 13 years.

Still, gold is near a resistance point that could stop the rally. Of course, if that level is broken, further gains could ensue.

The rally in gold has been supported by the concomitant fall in the dollar. The greenback seemed to be stabilizing last week but resumed its decline this week.

FPI is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, the Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (QGLDX). Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

The indicators

The short-term technical indicators of future stock market price changes that I watch are now all positive. Yet our QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy has a reading of just 0.4, suggesting an exposure of 40% to the S&P 500 Index as of Monday’s close.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy, after moving successfully into stocks at the close on July 23, returned to its defensive positioning at the close on August 18. It will move back to stocks at the close on August 24. This begins a choppy-to-down period for the Index until October 28. The longest downturn is projected from September 8 until September 29. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals for 2026—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

FPI’s intermediate-term tactical equity strategies remain mixed, with a positive bias. The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy has a 100% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Systematic Advantage ended the week 120% net long. Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy returned to 0% exposure on Monday (8/17). The Quantified STF Fund (QSTFX), currently the sole holding of QFC Dynamic Trends, has a primary signal of 0% NASDAQ 100 exposure as of August 17. Investing for the longer term, Classic remains 100% long equities.

Because the QFC Dynamic Trends, Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can employ leverage, the investment positions may exceed 100%.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure, one of our Market Regime Indicators, shows that markets are in a Normal economic environment stage (inflation and GDP are growing). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Rising reading. Since 2003, this environment favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. Still, stocks have the highest drawdown risk among the three asset classes, resulting in gold having the best risk-adjusted return profile for this particular regime. Bonds have the lowest return, risk, and drawdown. The High and Rising combination has occurred 28% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 8/10/26

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 02:44:00 GMT

By William Hubbard

Market snapshot

• Equities: Equities rallied across the board last week, with growth leading. The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, rising 3.59%; the NASDAQ Composite gained at 5.19%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 2.96%; and the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 3.54%.

• Fixed income: Treasury yields declined, as softer labor data outweighed signs of strength elsewhere in the economy. The 10-year Treasury yield eased from 4.74% at the prior Friday's close to 4.65% on Friday, a decline of nine basis points.

• Gold and commodities: Gold was the week's standout, up 7.30%, as investors continue to look for defensive exposure despite equity tailwinds.

• Market indicators and outlook: Overall, it was a risk-on week with a defensive undertone: broad equity gains and an easier rate backdrop, but a strong bid for gold alongside them. Our strategies were active and diverse in their allocations, between looking for short opportunities to adding leveraged long positions.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

The economic data gave investors a more complicated picture than the equity tape. July's ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022, while the Services PMI remained in expansion at 54.1. At the same time, the labor data weakened. Job openings eased to 7.36 million. ADP reported just 44,000 private-sector jobs added in July, and Friday's payroll report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs even as the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Productivity rose 1.4% in the second quarter, while unit labor costs increased only 1.3%. That combination helped rates move lower and gave equities another tailwind, but the labor data are worth watching. Slower hiring can be constructive for inflation and interest rates as long as it remains orderly.

Bespoke Investment Group has noted that the S&P 500 broke out to a new all-time high after spending much of the summer in a consolidation. The breakout has been supported by a very strong earnings season, although some of the week's enthusiasm was clearly short term. SPY call volume hit a record on Tuesday, while call open interest did not rise nearly as much. The market trend remains constructive, but the difference between strong fundamentals and increasingly aggressive sentiment is something to keep in mind.

Fixed income

Fixed income had a better week as Treasury yields moved lower. The 10-year Treasury yield declined from 4.74% at the prior Friday's close to 4.65% on August 7, a drop of about nine basis points. That reversed some of the rise in yields from the second half of July and provided a modest tailwind for longer-duration bonds.

The data gave the bond market reasons to move in both directions. Manufacturing remained strong, but labor data softened as we highlighted in the previous section. The 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated, but last week's move showed that softer hiring can still pull yields lower even while the broader economy continues to expand.

Gold and commodities

Gold was the standout last week, gaining 7.30%. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped just 0.38%. A softer U.S. dollar likely helped at the margin, but a move that small does not explain a 7% jump in gold. Falling Treasury yields were also supportive, while the size of the move suggests investors were still willing to add protection even as equities moved sharply higher.

SPDR Gold Shares closed at 398.47 on August 7, about 4% above its 50-day moving average of 382.34, but still roughly 3% below its 200-day moving average of 411.70. The short-term trend has improved considerably, but gold has not yet fully repaired the longer-term decline. The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund returned 7.41% for the week, closely tracking the move in gold futures.

Fund(Inception)	1 Year Ending (6/30/26)	5 Years Ending (6/30/26)	10 Years Ending (6/30/26)	Since Inception Ending (6/30/26)
Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (7/9/13)	19.34%	14.55%	8.69%	6.87%

Flexible Plan Investments (FPI) is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (QGLDX). Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

The indicators

QFC S&P Pattern Recognition Fund started the week in cash, then increased exposure to 50% long on Tuesday. On Friday, it dropped to 20% long to close out the week. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index started the week in its risk-on posture and ended the week in its risk-off posture, moving into that allocation on Friday’s close. (the QFC Political Seasonality Index is available – with all of the daily signals – post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Quantified Fund Credit category).

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies have been varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments – participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 80% long, moved to 60% long on Tuesday’s close, decreased to 40% long on Wednesday’s close, and returned to 60% long on Friday to end the week. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 90% long, increased to 120% long on Wednesday’s close, and dropped to 90% long on Friday to end the week. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy started the week 100% long, increased to 200% long on Wednesday’s close, before dropping back to 100% long on Friday to end the week. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure, one of our Market Regime Indicators, shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (characterized by falling inflation and growing GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 60% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for both stocks and gold. In a Normal environment, the worst historical drawdowns for the S&P 500 and gold have been 17.18% and 31.92%, respectively, while bonds have averaged a 3.2% annual return with a much smaller drawdown of 4.91%.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Falling reading, which has often coincided with higher drawdowns for stocks from an annualized return standpoint. This combination has occurred about 17% of the time since 2003. During such periods, equities and bonds tend to perform well but gold really shines, with a compounded growth rate of 15.56%. This also comes with higher expected drawdowns at around 30.48%.

Sources

https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026/06/TBR-Pros-and-Cons-Q326.pdf
Bespoke Investment Group, The Bespoke Report, August 7, 2026.

Market Update 8/3/26

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 02:18:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: The major U.S. stock market indexes moved higher last week. The Russell 2000 rose 0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.04%, the S&P 500 Index advanced 1.06%, and the NASDAQ Composite increased by 1.60%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.69% to 4.75% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold fell 0.16% last week, closing above $4,000 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks remain above both moving averages, reflecting positive long-term trends despite the sideways movements seen since early June. Investors have been watching second-quarter earnings results as well as fluctuating oil prices, which fell sharply from mid-May through early July before rising throughout July.

Oil prices have yet to stabilize, but corporate earnings have provided more clarity on profit trends. FactSet’s Earnings Insight report shows that the blended earnings growth rate for the index is 47.4%. If that rate holds, it would be the highest rate of earnings growth since 2021. Earnings growth has helped bring the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio to 19.6, below its five-year average of 19.9 but above its 10-year average of 19.0.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Unlike stocks, bonds remain below both moving averages, indicating a negative long-term trend in the bond market. Continued fluctuations in oil prices may be stoking fears of higher future inflation.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is undoubtedly keeping a close eye on economic developments and showed signs of a hawkish shift at its latest meeting. While the committee voted unanimously to leave rates unchanged in June, the July decision passed by a 9–3 vote. There could be a shift toward favoring an increase in rates in future meetings.

Market expectations also leaned toward a rate increase. Currently, CME FedWatch shows the market predicts a high chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s September meeting.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 200% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 130% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was aggressive throughout the week. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 120% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 140% net long on Wednesday, 120% net long on Thursday, and 80% net long on Friday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy held a 120% net long exposure to the S&P 500 at the start of the week. Exposure changed to 90% net long on Monday, 120% net long on Tuesday, and 90% net long on Thursday.

Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following Strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 at the start of the week. Exposure changed to 100% net long on Monday.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so their investment positions may at times exceed 100%.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure is one of our Market Regime Indicators. It shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second highest return but has also experienced high drawdown in these environments.

Market Update 7/27/26

Tue, 28 Jul 2026 00:20:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks struggled for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 Index dropped 0.6%, the NASDAQ tumbled 2.1%, and the Russell 2000 declined 1.1%.

• Bonds: Bonds also had a rough time. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fell 0.75%, and the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) lost 1.5%.

• Gold: Gold futures closed the week at $4,055.20, up $36.4 per ounce, or 0.91%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.71%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Short-term technical indicators are mostly negative for stocks. The economic environment is classified as Normal, favoring stocks and gold from a return perspective. Volatility is Low and Falling, a regime historically favorable for stocks over other asset classes on a return basis.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

As I forecast in my last update, the stock market tested its early June highs again this month. Unfortunately, the retest failed … twice. Since then, stocks have moved lower, led by the popular tech names of just a few months ago.

The current configuration of S&P 500 prices, shown in the chart above as of Monday’s close, continues to favor positive returns over the next 20 trading days (a 72% chance based on the last 10 years of price data). However, if the 20-day moving average closes below the 50-day moving average this week, which seems likely, the odds of a move down to the 200-day moving average (about 6% lower) would increase.

For the most part, the downturn has been driven by geopolitical events and fears that the AI boom has, at best, been overblown and, at worst, is a drain on economic resources. It has not been caused by economic weakness or poor corporate performance. Both categories have been relatively strong.

Employment gauges have shown surprising strength in most surveys. For example, the widely watched report of initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 for the week ending July 18, the lowest weekly total since September 1969 and the lowest four-week average (207,500) since 1969, according to the Department of Labor. Even more remarkable, current claims remain near historical lows despite the labor force having more than doubled, from 81.6 million in 1969 to 169 million now.

Headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month in June, its largest monthly decline since April 2020. According to Bespoke Investment Group, over the last 80 years, there have been six other months when CPI fell at least 0.3% more than a year outside of a recession. Three months later, the S&P 500 was higher in all six instances, with a median gain of 3.7%. These results should be viewed with some caution, though, since the primary driver of the decline was falling oil prices. With the Iranian conflict still ongoing, this cannot be counted on.

On the corporate front, second-quarter earnings season has been very favorable. Bespoke Investment Group reports that, among S&P 500 companies that have released results, 88.5% have exceeded earnings estimates and 83% have beaten sales expectations.

Geopolitics are likely to continue to impact stock prices in the short term. A change in direction at the Federal Reserve’s July 29 meeting (increasing rates) could also generate stock market volatility, likely to the downside. Prices may, however, get some support from positive political seasonality readings between now and August 18.

The bottom line: Despite favorable economic, corporate, and seasonal conditions, the macroeconomic environment and price technical factors seem likely to increase downside volatility over the month ahead.

Bonds

Bond yields remain above their moving averages, though they have improved from the recent high reached just a few days ago. With a Federal Reserve meeting this week, the bond market has been reluctant to move too far one way or another.

As discussed in the Stocks section above, the economy has been stronger than many have expected, inflation improved in the latest monthly reading, and oil prices have retreated almost 25% from their recent highs during the Iranian conflict. As a result, the talk this week has been that the Fed has room for a surprise rate hike. Rates have moved up in anticipation. If this does not occur, and oil continues to fall, rates may be able to start a move back toward their short-term moving average, in the 4.5% range.

In the meantime, bond prices have continued to fall, as the chart below demonstrates.

The ETF representing the high-yield bond market sector (HYG) moved to new highs as stocks advanced but has since pulled back.

Gold

An important determinant of the price of gold is the real interest rate. When real rates climb, the metal has tended to struggle because, unlike fixed income, it doesn’t bear interest. Unfortunately, real interest rates have spiked as oil prices have risen. This has continued to place downward pressure on gold’s pricing.

At the same time, U.S. Global Investors reports that, “according to Kitco, China’s gold imports reached a 26-month high in May and are up 76% year to date, underscoring robust physical demand from the world’s largest gold market. Continued buying by Chinese consumers and investors is providing an important source of support for gold prices amid ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.” In addition, “the People’s Bank of China bought 15 [tons] of gold in June—its largest single-month purchase since October 2023—bringing official holdings to 2,346 [tons]. That represents 20 consecutive months of accumulation, the longest streak on record, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). … Its rate of accumulation has accelerated as the price of gold has fallen. …”

U.S. Global Investors notes, “The country added 40 [tons] in the first half, during which gold lost close to 30% of its value from its all-time high in late January. Analysts at New York-based hedge fund Zweig-DiMenna calculate roughly $5.7 billion of Chinese purchases in [the first half of 2026], most of it in the second quarter, against about $2 billion in all of 2025, when gold was rallying hard.”

Legendary hedge fund manager John Paulson, who made billions shorting the subprime mortgage market in 2007, told CNBC last week that he believes we’re still in the early innings of a long-term gold rally. “As people lose faith in paper currencies, gold as an alternative will continue to grow,” Paulson said, adding that the metal “is becoming the most apt reserve currency in the world, replacing fiat currencies.”

Speaking of fiat currencies, the U.S. dollar has resumed its march higher since my last report. That, of course, is not supportive of gold.

The indicators

The short-term technical indicators of future stock market price changes that I watch are now mostly negative. Yet our QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy has a reading of 2, suggesting an exposure of 200% to the S&P 5000 500 Index as of Monday’s close.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy moved into stocks at the close on July 23. It will return to its defensive positioning at the close on August 18. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals for 2026—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

FPI’s intermediate-term tactical equity strategies remain mixed, with a positive bias. The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy has a 120% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Systematic Advantage ended the week 120% net long. Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy returned to 100% exposure on Monday (7/27). QFC Dynamic Trends is in a 2X NDX exposure within the Quantified STF Fund (QSTFX). Investing for the longer term, Classic continues 100% long equities.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a Low and Falling reading. Since 2003, this environment favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. Gold has the highest drawdown risk among the three asset classes, making bonds the asset class with the best risk-adjusted return profile in this regime. Bonds also have the lowest return, risk, and drawdown. The Low and Falling combination has occurred 32% of the time since 2003.

Market Update: Second-quarter 2026 recap

Mon, 20 Jul 2026 18:30:00 GMT

Market rebounds as optimism returns

The second quarter of 2026 saw a strong reversal from the market weakness of the first quarter. Markets rebounded, supported by robust earnings among S&P 500 companies and renewed optimism for AI-driven growth opportunities. Geopolitical tensions eased during the quarter, and Kevin Warsh began his tenure as Federal Reserve chair in May, succeeding Jerome Powell. Against this backdrop, markets reached new highs.

Information Technology led the markets higher, returning more than twice as much as the second-best-performing sector. Energy and Utilities were the only sectors to post negative returns for the quarter. Domestic equities outperformed international equities.

Both the broader bond market and longer-dated bonds rose during the quarter. A decline in oil prices helped ease concerns about a resurgence in inflation. The Federal Reserve held rates, even after the leadership transition.

Gold posted its first quarterly loss since Q4 2024. Even so, gold finished the quarter substantially higher than it was a year ago. Many of our strategies invest in gold to capitalize on its positive periods, which can occur when stocks or bonds are under pressure.

Our equity, core, and alternative strategies remained mostly aggressive in their positioning, while a larger percentage of our bond strategies were aggressively positioned compared with last quarter. At quarter-end, among our QFC, ETF, and Axos platform strategies:

• 74% of our equity strategies were over 90% invested in non-defensive assets

• 47% of our bond strategies had over 50% in non-defensive asset exposures

• 92% of our core strategies held over 50% in non-defensive assets

• 86% of our alternative strategies had over 50% in non-defensive asset exposures

The second quarter’s sharp contrast with the first is a reminder that market leadership can shift quickly. Markets are dynamic, and we believe investor portfolios should be too. That is why our strategies continually examine market trends and adjust accordingly, updating investor portfolios as the tides change.

Market Update 7/13/26

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 02:54:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: The major U.S. indexes finished mostly higher on a tech-led advance. The S&P 500 rose 1.26%, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.74%, and the large-cap NASDAQ 100 added 1.70%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.48%.

• Fixed income: Treasury yields advanced, with the 10-year ending the week at 4.56%.

• Gold and commodities: Gold fell 0.06%. The U.S. dollar was up 0.09%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Most of our tactical strategies benefited from the strength in technology shares, while our fixed-income strategies remained defensively positioned as yields climbed. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, though gold has also experienced meaningful drawdowns in this environment. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Information Technology led the market, gaining 3.43% for the week. However, participation was relatively narrow, with only five of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors finishing higher. Bespoke Investment Group has noted the divergence between rising headline indexes and weaker participation beneath the surface.

Rising technology-component costs may also bear watching. According to Bespoke, Apple raised iPad and Mac prices, while Microsoft increased Xbox prices for the third time in 13 months. These increases may be linked in part to memory costs, which have climbed to more than 2.5 times over the same period. Rising component costs are beginning to feed through to sticker prices, and the margin and inflation signal is worth tracking under the rally.

Why it matters: Concentrated leadership can carry the indexes, but it also leaves the advance dependent on a single sector. Bonds remained firm alongside stocks, favoring equities for the week, though narrow sector participation raises questions about the breadth and durability of the move.

Fixed income

The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.56%, its highest level in several weeks. As yields rose, Treasury prices declined, making duration a headwind during the period.

The move reflected continued expectations for resilient economic growth and fewer near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors also weighed the longer-term implications of persistent federal borrowing and Treasury issuance, which have contributed to elevated yields this year.

While stocks continued to move higher, bonds offered little diversification during the week. Rising yields alongside rising equity prices suggest investors remained comfortable taking risk rather than seeking the safety of Treasurys.

Gold and commodities

Gold was essentially flat for the week, with spot bullion falling 0.06%. Neither the safe-haven bid nor the risk-on rally in equities pulled it far from where it started.

A firmer U.S. dollar gets much of the credit for capping the move. The U.S. Dollar Index ticked up 0.09%. Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, even a small increase in the greenback can make the metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. That seemed to be enough of a headwind to keep gold from gaining traction.

As previously noted, Bespoke Investment Group has reported a sharp increase in memory-chip prices, which has contributed to higher hardware prices from Apple and Microsoft. So far, however, those cost pressures have not materially affected broader inflation measures such as core personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A relatively stable inflation outlook may have limited demand for gold as an inflation hedge during the week.

The indicators

Our equity signals moved firmly risk-on this week. The QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy remained levered at 200% long throughout the week. The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy maintained a 200% net-long position throughout the week. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index was in its risk-on posture throughout the week. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index is available—with all the daily signals—post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category).

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies have been varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments, participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 80% long, moved to 60% long on Monday’s close, and returned to 80% long on Tuesday’s close. It increased to 100% long on Thursday’s close and remained there through the end of the week. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 60% long, increased to 120% long on Thursday’s close, and dropped to 90% long on Friday to end the week. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure, one of our Market Regime Indicators, shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Market Update 7/6/26

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 02:35:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: Stocks posted broad gains during the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite each reached record highs. Eight of 11 sectors finished higher, led by Communication Services, which gained 4.97%.^1,2,3

• Fixed income: Treasurys dipped as yields moved higher, with the 10-year ending the week at 4.49%.^13,21

• Gold and commodities: Gold rose 0.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.49%, providing some support. A weaker dollar can make gold less expensive for buyers using other currencies.^16,20

• Market indicators and outlook: Equity signals were firmly risk-on this week, though some scaled back ahead of the long holiday weekend. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, though gold has also experienced meaningful drawdowns in this environment. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Stocks began the third quarter with broad gains and new records despite the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 rose 1.78%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.99%, and the NASDAQ Composite led the major indexes with a gain of 2.12%. All three set record highs.^1,3 The Dow drew the most attention, closing near 52,900 midweek before briefly moving above 53,000 for the first time as the new week began.^2,23

The gains were not driven solely by the usual mega-cap leaders. The NASDAQ 100 rose only 0.73%, trailing the broader NASDAQ Composite by a wide margin.^1,2 Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced, and the Russell 2000 reached an all-time high, completing its best first half since 1991 as investors moved beyond large technology companies.¹⁰ Bespoke Investment Group cited the improvement in breadth as support for the bullish case.¹¹

Communication Services led all sectors with a 4.97% gain. Meta rose about 9% after announcing plans for a cloud business that would sell excess AI computing capacity, reportedly through arrangements involving Anthropic and Google.⁷ Investors viewed the announcement as a potential offset to concerns about Meta’s rising AI capital spending, helping the sector advance despite uneven performance among other mega-cap technology stocks.^8,9

Semiconductors were the main reason the NASDAQ 100 lagged. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell more than 5% on July 1 as investors took profits following a record quarter in which the group gained roughly 71%. Micron declined by about 11%.¹² That early decline limited the NASDAQ 100’s weekly gain to 0.73%, even as the Dow reached new highs. Semiconductor shares later stabilized and participated in the rebound as the Dow moved above 53,000.²

Economic data also supported the move. June payroll growth fell well short of expectations, while unemployment edged lower.^4,5 Investors generally took the combination as consistent with the Federal Reserve remaining on hold.

Broader participation matters because it reduces the market’s dependence on a small group of stocks. With eight sectors advancing and small caps leading, the week’s gains were less concentrated than they have often been. That does not eliminate risk, but it lowers the immediate vulnerability to a reversal in a single crowded trade. Our equity signals moved firmly risk-on, though exposure remains measured given the strength of current risk appetite.

Fixed income

The 10-year Treasury yield rose from approximately 4.37% to 4.49% during the holiday-shortened week.^13,21 The increase weighed on Treasury prices and reflected continued uncertainty around inflation, economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.²²

Yields briefly pulled back after June payroll growth fell short of expectations, but that reaction did not hold.^4,14 The 10-year yield recovered as investors weighed the softer hiring number against a decline in the unemployment rate and broader concerns that inflation could keep long-term rates elevated.^15,21 Despite signs of cooling in the labor market, the week’s move suggested that bond investors remain hesitant to price in a sustained decline in longer-term interest rates.

Gold and commodities

Gold rose 0.82% for the week, while Comex gold futures gained 0.72%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.49%, providing some support. A weaker dollar can make gold less expensive for buyers using other currencies.²⁰

Within Flexible Plan Investments (FPI’s) lineup, the Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (QGLDX) returned 1.22%, ahead of spot gold’s 0.82% gain. Launched in 2013, the Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

Gold continues to serve as a useful diversifier, and our positioning treats it as a complement to equity exposure rather than solely as protection during severe market stress.

The indicators

Our equity signals moved firmly risk-on this week. The QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy began the week in cash, with 0% leverage from the prior Friday through Tuesday. It moved to 200% leverage on Wednesday and remained there throughout the week. The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition (QSPMX) strategy maintained a 200% net-long position throughout the week. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index was in its risk-on posture for the duration of the week. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category).

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 40% long and moved to 60% long on Monday’s close. It increased to 80% long on Thursday’s close. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 90% long. It reduced exposure to 60% on Thursday’s close. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Sources

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

2. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

3. https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/global-markets-weekly-update.html

4. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html

5. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

6. https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026/06/062526-The-Closer-–-Breadth-Disconnects-Price-Hikes-PCE-–-43twrgeh46rthn.pdf

7. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/meta-stock-cloud-ai-compute.html

8. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/metas-plan-to-launch-a-cloud-business-eases-the-biggest-overhang-on-the-stock.html

9. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/metas-push-into-cloud-excites-wall-street-despite-lower-margins.html

10. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/30/small-cap-stocks-enjoy-best-first-half-since-1991-as-ai-trade-expands.html

11. https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026/06/TBR-Pros-and-Cons-Q326.pdf

12. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/chip-stocks-notched-record-rallies-in-second-quarter-start-q3-with-dud.html

13. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/us-treasury-yields-rise-as-investors-await-june-jobs-report.html

14. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-02/bonds-rally-as-weak-jobs-report-dims-fed-rate-hike-expectations

15. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm

16. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/03/gold-silver-price-inflation-fed-rate-hike.html

17. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-02/gold-bulls-charge-back-wall-street-and-main-street-after-weak-jobs-report

18. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-06/gold-slips-fed-minutes-loom-hormuz-risk-eases-oil-shock-kitco-am-report

19. https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2026-07-01/gold-and-silver-reset-setup-heading-q3

20. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency

21. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/treasury-yields-us10y-kevin-warsh-fed.html

22. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026.html

23. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/dow-rides-into-new-week-at-record-high-what-investors-are-watching-ahead.html

Market Update 6/29/26

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 02:01:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks were mixed last week. The NASDAQ Composite fell 4.59%, the S&P 500 declined 1.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.60%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 1.03%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.46% to 4.38% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold fell 2.88% for the week, closing above $4,000 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, though gold has also experienced meaningful drawdowns in this environment. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 gave back a small portion of the market’s substantial year-to-date gains last week as the AI rally paused.

The pullback comes as investors turn their attention to second-quarter earnings season. Companies reported robust earnings growth in the first quarter, and investors will be looking to see if that strength continues.

Oil prices fell sharply through most of June as negotiations helped ease tensions in the Middle East. The decline could help temper inflation concerns that had reemerged after recent higher readings.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

The recent decline in oil prices has helped bonds recover. Potentially lower inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room to keep rates at less restrictive levels than it might otherwise need to set them.

The Federal Open Market Committee met this month for the first time with Kevin Warsh serving as the new Fed chair. As expected, the Fed kept its target rate unchanged. However, the outlook may be more hawkish. According to CME FedWatch, the market currently sees a meaningful chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s July meeting.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 110% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 80% net long on Monday, 120% net long on Wednesday, and 200% net long on Thursday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was defensive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to an aggressive posture on Friday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 20% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 0% net long on Monday, 40% net long on Tuesday, 20% net long on Wednesday, and 40% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy held a 90% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following, and the QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so the investment positions may at times exceed 100%.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure, one of our Market Regime Indicators, shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Market Update 6/22/26

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 02:02:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: Stocks finished the week higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75%, the small-cap Russell 2000 added 1.24%, and the NASDAQ Composite climbed 2.44%.

• Fixed income: Treasury yields were volatile. The Fed held rates steady but updated projections to show at least one rate increase this year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly to 4.46% for the week.

• Gold and commodities: Gold fell 0.22% for the week as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Oil declined on hopes for improvement in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

• Market indicators and outlook: Our strategies were active, looking to establish or continue long or levered positions. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, though gold has also experienced meaningful drawdowns in this environment. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Stocks finished higher last week, benefiting from easing geopolitical pressure, a sharp drop in oil prices, and renewed leadership from technology and semiconductor-related names. At the same time, investors had to digest a more complicated interest-rate backdrop after the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.

The Russell 2000 reached a new record closing high. Small caps have often struggled when rates rise or credit conditions tighten. Their strength suggests that investors were willing to look beyond mega-cap technology and take on more cyclical exposure.

Technology remained a major source of leadership. Semiconductor stocks rallied sharply late in the week, helped by optimism around domestic chip production and continued confidence in AI-related capital spending.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but its message around future policy became less friendly. Updated projections showed that nearly half of Fed officials now see at least one rate increase in 2026. That is a meaningful shift from the rate-cut expectations that dominated earlier in the year. Strong retail sales and a still-resilient labor market give the Fed more room to stay focused on inflation, especially after oil-driven price pressure created another complication for policymakers.

The result is a market that continues to act well but is not without risk. Investors are balancing falling oil prices and strong earnings momentum against a Fed that may not be finished tightening. For now, price action still favors equities, growth, and momentum. But this remains an environment where discipline matters. A rules-based process does not need to predict the next Fed statement, geopolitical headline, or AI earnings surprise. It simply needs to recognize when the market is rewarding risk and when that condition begins to change.

Fixed income

Treasurys had a choppy week as investors weighed two competing ideas. On one hand, lower oil prices helped ease some inflation concerns. On the other, the Federal Reserve’s updated projections made it clear that policymakers are not ready to declare victory over inflation. As a result, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly from 4.48% to 4.46%.

The Fed left its benchmark policy rate unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. But the important part of the meeting was the change in tone. The updated projections showed that nearly half of policymakers now expect at least one rate hike before year-end. The policy statement also moved away from language that had previously pointed toward potential cuts. That was a reminder that the bond market still has to factor in inflation risk, even as economic growth remains resilient.

Economic data added to that tension. May retail sales increased more than expected, helped by auto purchases and higher gasoline sales. Core retail sales also rose, suggesting the consumer is not yet breaking. For the Fed, that type of data can be a double-edged sword. It supports the soft-landing argument, but it also gives policymakers less urgency to ease policy if inflation remains above target.

For investors, the message is similar to what we have seen for much of this cycle. Bonds still have an important role in portfolios, especially now that yields provide more income than they did during the zero-rate period. But fixed income should not be viewed as a guaranteed shock absorber in every environment. When inflation expectations rise or the Fed turns more hawkish, bonds can become a source of volatility rather than a simple offset to equity risk.

That does not mean investors should abandon fixed income. It means duration, credit exposure, and overall portfolio construction should remain intentional. The opportunity in bonds is better than it was several years ago, but the risk still needs to be managed.

Gold and commodities

Commodities remained central to the market narrative last week. Oil prices moved sharply lower as investors responded to progress around U.S.-Iran negotiations and the possibility of improved oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude remained sensitive to each new headline, but the direction mattered: Lower oil prices helped ease some inflation pressure and supported risk assets.

That was one reason equities moved higher despite a more hawkish Fed. Falling oil prices can act like a tax cut for consumers and businesses by reducing pressure at the gas pump, helping transportation-related industries, and softening inflation expectations. But investors should be careful about treating geopolitical relief as permanent. Energy markets can reprice quickly when supply routes, production, or diplomacy change.

Gold moved lower for the week as the U.S. dollar strengthened and rate expectations rose. That is the other side of the same macro story. Gold can benefit from uncertainty, but it can struggle when real rates rise or when investors believe the Fed will keep policy tighter for longer. Last week was a reminder that gold is not a one-direction hedge. It can help diversify portfolios, but it is still affected by rates, currency moves, and investor positioning.

From our perspective, gold remains a sensible diversifier. But, like every asset class, gold is most useful when evaluated as part of a broader portfolio process, not as a stand-alone bet on a single market outcome. It can respond well to stress and uncertainty, but it can also face pressure when monetary policy and the dollar move against it.

The indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started the week 80% long, decreased exposure to 70% long on Monday, and then jumped to 110% long on Thursday to close the week. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index remained in a risk-off posture this week. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of its daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies have been varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments by participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 20% long, moved to cash on Tuesday’s close, and then moved back to 20% long on Thursday’s close to end the week. The Systematic Advantage strategy remained 90% long throughout the week. Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy started the week at 200% exposure and shifted to 0% exposure on Thursday. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Market Update 6/15/26

Tue, 16 Jun 2026 02:28:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks posted gains this past week. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.65%, the NASDAQ climbed 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 rallied 3.9%.

• Bonds: Bonds also did well. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) gained 0.6%, and the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) added 0.8%.

• Gold: Gold futures closed the week at $4,231.30, down $134 per ounce, or 3.07%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar fell 0.29%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Technical indicators are mostly positive for stocks, as are the strategies. The economic environment is classified as Normal, favoring gold and stocks from a return perspective. Volatility is High and Rising, a regime historically favorable for gold over other asset classes on a risk-adjusted-return basis.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The pause suggested in my last Market Update came to pass two weeks ago. But stocks managed to rally last Friday to finish the week on the positive side, inspired by the vaunted memorandum of understanding (MOU) on settling the Iranian conflict, along with excitement over the SpaceX IPO. Today (Monday, June 15), that rally continued.

As the previous chart makes clear, the S&P 500 Index fell to its 50-day moving average just before springing higher. The same occurred on the NASDAQ Composite’s weekly chart, where the 10-week moving average provided the support.

Geopolitical events have impacted stock prices throughout the year. First, the beginning of the Iran conflict sent stock prices reeling, only to have a cease-fire and repeated suggestions of an impending peace agreement lead the recovering equity indexes higher. Friday’s announcement of the MOU, followed by today’s setting of Friday as the signing date, has breathed fresh air into what was becoming a stale process.

Economic news has been mixed, with highlights (surging employment) and lowlights (increased inflation). Last week was more of the same.

Take inflation. The consumer price index for May was reported in line with higher expectations. But core inflation readings were below expectations, as the price of goods measured in the report actually declined instead of accelerating as expected.

Of course, with the peace agreement, the price of oil also fell. It is currently just below $80 per barrel after spending much of the second quarter over $100. Even before that, the price of gasoline here was below the $5-per-gallon high-water mark set in 2022.

The bottom line: Despite the unfavorable seasonality of mid-June, the combination of a stand-pat Federal Reserve meeting this week and a positive macro environment is likely to push the market higher to test its previous record highs in the short term.

Bonds

Bond yields remain stubbornly above their short-term moving average. Still, with the peace talks, yields have been falling for weeks and are about 25 basis points below their recent highs. Perhaps with the final signing of the MOU on Friday, we will get the downside breakout that would signal the beginning of a meaningful downtrend.

In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve on Wednesday as it meets to discuss the future direction of short-term rates. All indications are that, despite strong employment reports, the new Fed chairman has no appetite to raise rates at this meeting. The better-than-expected core inflation reports, as discussed above, and the peace deal give him some time and cover.

Government bonds have been rallying as yields have moved lower to test the moving average breakout point. Again, the long-term bond ETF (TLT) seems poised for a breakthrough. At the same time, the ETF representing the high-yield bond market (HYG) has broken to new highs, which is a good sign that the stock indexes may soon follow.

Gold

Gold attempted several breakouts above its moving average earlier this year, but it has since settled into an intermediate downturn and breached the lows set in March. The MOU announcement has caused the price of the yellow metal to reverse direction and rally, but further gains seem more dependent on resumed oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz than anything else.

Still, the case for further gold appreciation remains strong. Last week, many commentators opined that gold was oversold. The latest reports indicate that central banks resumed buying the precious metal in April. Those followed previous reports that some central banks (Turkey, for example) had liquidated or lent gold to raise funds to combat high oil prices after the beginning of the Iranian conflict.

Longer-term price appreciation in the metal was in the headlines last week with the start of the World Cup. The trophy awarded to the winners is made of gold. As the following chart shows, its value has soared with gold’s price gains over the years.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has tumbled along with the decline in interest rates. This has been relieving pressure on gold. The dollar also appears poised for a further breakdown if it falls below its recent support at the short-term moving average.

The indicators

The short-term technical indicators of future stock market price changes that I watch are now mostly positive. And our QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy has 70% exposure to the S&P 500 Index as of Monday’s close.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy moved out of stocks at the close on June 5. It will return to stocks at the close on June 26. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals for 2026—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

FPI’s intermediate-term tactical equity strategies remain mixed, with a positive bias. The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy has 20% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Systematic Advantage ended the week 90% net long. Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy moved back to its 200% exposure mode at the close on June 12. QFC Dynamic Trends also moved from its defensive posture in the Quantified Eckhardt Managed Futures Strategy Fund (QECTX) back into the 2X exposure of the Quantified STF Fund (QSTFX). Investing for the longer term, Classic continues 100% long equities.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Rising reading. Since 2003, this environment favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. Still, stocks have the highest drawdown risk among the three asset classes, making gold the best risk-adjusted performer in this particular regime. Bonds have the lowest return, risk, and drawdown. The High and Rising combination has occurred 28% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 6/8/26

Tue, 09 Jun 2026 02:31:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks moved lower last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 declined 2.55%, the Russell 2000 lost 2.91%, and the NASDAQ Composite decreased by 4.65%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose from 4.45% to 4.55% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold fell 4.67% for the week but remained above $4,300 an ounce.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks pulled back, led lower by semiconductor stocks, which had been on a strong run for the year until last week. The industry had seen high demand tied to AI, which helped lift share prices, leading the market to new highs this year. With valuations elevated, however, semiconductor shares came under pressure last week, weighing on the major indexes.

Companies reported robust earnings growth in the first quarter. Second-quarter earnings season is still several weeks away, but investors will be watching to see whether that strength continues. Investors are also still looking for further resolution in the Middle East, where concerns about regional stability and the potential impact on inflation remain part of the backdrop.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bond prices remained subdued as geopolitical tensions lingered and oil prices stay elevated, adding to concerns about inflation. Inflation has already moved higher in recent months, and readings could rise further if oil prices remain elevated or climb from current levels. That would make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower rates, which could keep pressure on bond prices.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets later this month. CME FedWatch currently shows that markets expect no rate change at the meeting. With inflation ticking up in recent months, the Fed may wait to see whether price pressures stabilize before adjusting rates.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 30% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 50% net long on Tuesday, 60% net long on Wednesday, 10% net long on Thursday, and 20% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was aggressive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to a defensive posture on Friday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals— is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 60% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 80% net long on Monday, 120% net long on Tuesday, 140% net long on Thursday, and 160% net long on Friday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week with 120% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 150% net long on Monday and to 120% net long on Tuesday.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so the investment positions may at times exceed 100%.

Market Update 6/1/26

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 02:23:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: Broad-based equity indexes finished higher for the week, with technology leadership again carrying the major averages to record territory. The S&P 500 gained 1.44%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.91%, the NASDAQ Composite climbed 2.39%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 1.77%.

• Fixed income: Interest rates moved lower this week as hopes for progress in the U.S.-Iran conflict helped ease some inflation concerns, though rates remain highly sensitive to oil prices. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield finished the month near 4.44%, down roughly 12 basis points for the week.

• Gold and commodities: Gold finished modestly higher for the week after a late-week bounce, while oil remained the more important macro story. Gold ended May at $4,540.26 per ounce, while Brent crude settled near $92 per barrel after falling late in the week on hopes for an extension of the U.S.-Iran truce.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

The equity market continued to climb the wall of worry last week, as it has for much of the spring. The S&P 500 finished higher for the ninth week in a row and closed May in record territory.

Leadership was again heavily influenced by technology and AI-related names. Dell Technologies rose 30% on earnings, showing that companies able to connect the AI story to revenue, earnings, and forward guidance continue to attract investor attention.

At the same time, economic data remained mixed. April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3.8% from a year earlier, while core PCE climbed 3.3%. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Consumer spending increased 0.5% in nominal terms, but real PCE rose only 0.1%. That suggests households are still spending, but inflation is accounting for much of the increase in the headline numbers. Initial jobless claims rose to 215,000 in the week ending May 23. That is still low by historical standards, but it is a reminder that the labor market is no longer as tight as it was.

The equity market is balancing two ideas. The first is that the economy is still growing, corporate earnings remain resilient, and AI-related capital spending continues to create opportunities. The second is that inflation is not fully contained, oil prices remain a major swing factor, and the Fed has little room to declare victory.

For investors, this is where process matters. A rules-based approach does not need to predict every headline out of Washington, Tehran, the Fed, or the Technology sector. It simply needs to respond to what the market is actually doing. Right now, the market continues to reward growth and momentum, but risks below the surface make it important to have a plan for changing conditions.

Fixed income

Treasurys had another choppy week, but yields moved lower. The 10-year Treasury yield finished May near 4.44%, down roughly 12 basis points for the week. That move was largely tied to the same issue driving commodities: whether the U.S.-Iran conflict would continue to pressure oil prices and inflation expectations, or whether some form of truce could reopen supply routes and take pressure off energy markets.

The bond market is trying to digest a difficult mixture of data. Inflation is still too high, with PCE running above the Fed’s target. Consumer spending remains positive, but real income and real spending data suggest household pressure is building. The labor market is not breaking, but it is also not as tight as it was. In that environment, each new inflation report, labor report, and oil headline can move rate expectations.

This mix of data highlights why we think bonds continue to have a role in portfolios. But investors should be careful about assuming they will always provide a smooth offset to equity volatility. The experience of 2022 is still a reminder that fixed income can become a source of volatility when inflation and rates are moving in the wrong direction. We are not coming off a zero-interest-rate policy today, which changes the environment. But the message is similar: Fixed income can diversify risk, but it still needs to be managed and adaptive to the current market regime.

Gold and commodities

The war in Iran continued to keep Brent crude top of mind for investors. Brent crude finished the week near $92 per barrel after hopes for a potential extension of the U.S.-Iran truce helped ease some concerns about supply disruptions.

Gold remained firm late in the week, ending May at $4,540.26 per ounce. Gold was still down for the month, but the late-week rebound showed that investors continue to view it as a hedge against uncertainty, even if higher real rates and a stronger dollar can create periodic headwinds.

From our perspective, gold still makes sense as a diversifier. But last week was another reminder that it is not a magic asset. It can benefit from uncertainty, but it can also come under pressure when rates or the dollar move higher.

The indicators

QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started the week 50% long, then moved to cash on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it increased to 70% long before moving to 90% on Thursday. It then scaled back to 30% long to close the week.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index spent the week in its risk-on posture. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments—participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 40% long and moved to 60% long on Tuesday’s close. It dropped back to 40% long on Wednesday’s close and ended the week at 60% long after increasing exposure on Thursday’s close. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 120% long and increased exposure to 150% long on Tuesday’s close. It dropped back to 120% long on Friday’s close to end the week. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy spent the week in cash. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Our Classic model was fully “risk-on” all week. Most Classic accounts follow a signal that can change exposure within a week, though a few remain on platforms requiring up to a month to adjust to new signals.

Market Update 5/26/26

Wed, 27 May 2026 02:19:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks were higher last week. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.48%, the S&P 500 added 0.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.18%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 2.75%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.59% to 4.56% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold lost 0.68% last week, closing above $4,600 an ounce.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks remain near their highs for the year, showing strength after a volatile first quarter. Optimism around AI, hopes for a recovery in oil supply, and better-than-expected corporate earnings have helped restore investors’ confidence in current valuations, allowing the market to reach new highs this quarter.

FactSet’s Earnings Insight report shows that more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter results so far, with most posting better-than-expected earnings. Earnings growth has also been strong, with the blended rate at 28.4%—the highest level in years. Valuations for the Index remain above historical averages.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bonds have not seen the same strength as stocks in recent weeks. The bond market has been trending lower since late February. Fixed-income investors may be wary of potentially higher inflation given recent oil disruptions. The transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair could also be influencing investors’ expectations for where the market goes from here.

The Federal Open Market Committee did not meet this month. Its next scheduled meeting is in mid-June. The CME FedWatch currently shows that the market strongly expects no rate change at the meeting. Inflation has ticked up in recent months, so the Fed may monitor whether price pressures stabilize before adjusting rates in either direction.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

Flexible Plan Investments (FPI) is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund, formerly The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 0% exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 20% net long on Monday, 80% net long on Wednesday, and 50% net long on Thursday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was defensive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to an aggressive posture on Friday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index is available—with all of the daily signals—post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 60% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 20% net long on Monday and 40% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy held a 120% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

Market Update 5/18/26

Tue, 19 May 2026 02:08:00 GMT