News

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks were mixed last week. The NASDAQ Composite fell 4.59%, the S&P 500 declined 1.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.60%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 1.03%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.46% to 4.38% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold fell 2.88% for the week, closing above $4,000 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, though gold has also experienced meaningful drawdowns in this environment. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

The S&P 500 gave back a small portion of the market’s substantial year-to-date gains last week as the AI rally paused.

The pullback comes as investors turn their attention to second-quarter earnings season. Companies reported robust earnings growth in the first quarter, and investors will be looking to see if that strength continues.

Oil prices fell sharply through most of June as negotiations helped ease tensions in the Middle East. The decline could help temper inflation concerns that had reemerged after recent higher readings.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

The recent decline in oil prices has helped bonds recover. Potentially lower inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room to keep rates at less restrictive levels than it might otherwise need to set them.

The Federal Open Market Committee met this month for the first time with Kevin Warsh serving as the new Fed chair. As expected, the Fed kept its target rate unchanged. However, the outlook may be more hawkish. According to CME FedWatch, the market currently sees a meaningful chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s July meeting.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Flexible Plan Investments (FPI) is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 110% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 80% net long on Monday, 120% net long on Wednesday, and 200% net long on Thursday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was defensive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to an aggressive posture on Friday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 20% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 0% net long on Monday, 40% net long on Tuesday, 20% net long on Wednesday, and 40% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy held a 90% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following, and the QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so the investment positions may at times exceed 100%.

Our Classic model remained in stocks throughout last week. Most of our Classic accounts follow a signal that will allow the strategy to change exposure in as little as a week. A few accounts are on platforms that are more restrictive and can take up to one month to generate a new signal.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure, one of our Market Regime Indicators, shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Market Update 6/22/26

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 02:02:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: Stocks finished the week higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75%, the small-cap Russell 2000 added 1.24%, and the NASDAQ Composite climbed 2.44%.

• Fixed income: Treasury yields were volatile. The Fed held rates steady but updated projections to show at least one rate increase this year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly to 4.46% for the week.

• Gold and commodities: Gold fell 0.22% for the week as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Oil declined on hopes for improvement in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

• Market indicators and outlook: Our strategies were active, looking to establish or continue long or levered positions. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, though gold has also experienced meaningful drawdowns in this environment. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Stocks finished higher last week, benefiting from easing geopolitical pressure, a sharp drop in oil prices, and renewed leadership from technology and semiconductor-related names. At the same time, investors had to digest a more complicated interest-rate backdrop after the Federal Reserve’s June meeting.

The Russell 2000 reached a new record closing high. Small caps have often struggled when rates rise or credit conditions tighten. Their strength suggests that investors were willing to look beyond mega-cap technology and take on more cyclical exposure.

Technology remained a major source of leadership. Semiconductor stocks rallied sharply late in the week, helped by optimism around domestic chip production and continued confidence in AI-related capital spending.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but its message around future policy became less friendly. Updated projections showed that nearly half of Fed officials now see at least one rate increase in 2026. That is a meaningful shift from the rate-cut expectations that dominated earlier in the year. Strong retail sales and a still-resilient labor market give the Fed more room to stay focused on inflation, especially after oil-driven price pressure created another complication for policymakers.

The result is a market that continues to act well but is not without risk. Investors are balancing falling oil prices and strong earnings momentum against a Fed that may not be finished tightening. For now, price action still favors equities, growth, and momentum. But this remains an environment where discipline matters. A rules-based process does not need to predict the next Fed statement, geopolitical headline, or AI earnings surprise. It simply needs to recognize when the market is rewarding risk and when that condition begins to change.

Fixed income

Treasurys had a choppy week as investors weighed two competing ideas. On one hand, lower oil prices helped ease some inflation concerns. On the other, the Federal Reserve’s updated projections made it clear that policymakers are not ready to declare victory over inflation. As a result, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly from 4.48% to 4.46%.

The Fed left its benchmark policy rate unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. But the important part of the meeting was the change in tone. The updated projections showed that nearly half of policymakers now expect at least one rate hike before year-end. The policy statement also moved away from language that had previously pointed toward potential cuts. That was a reminder that the bond market still has to factor in inflation risk, even as economic growth remains resilient.

Economic data added to that tension. May retail sales increased more than expected, helped by auto purchases and higher gasoline sales. Core retail sales also rose, suggesting the consumer is not yet breaking. For the Fed, that type of data can be a double-edged sword. It supports the soft-landing argument, but it also gives policymakers less urgency to ease policy if inflation remains above target.

For investors, the message is similar to what we have seen for much of this cycle. Bonds still have an important role in portfolios, especially now that yields provide more income than they did during the zero-rate period. But fixed income should not be viewed as a guaranteed shock absorber in every environment. When inflation expectations rise or the Fed turns more hawkish, bonds can become a source of volatility rather than a simple offset to equity risk.

That does not mean investors should abandon fixed income. It means duration, credit exposure, and overall portfolio construction should remain intentional. The opportunity in bonds is better than it was several years ago, but the risk still needs to be managed.

Gold and commodities

Commodities remained central to the market narrative last week. Oil prices moved sharply lower as investors responded to progress around U.S.-Iran negotiations and the possibility of improved oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude remained sensitive to each new headline, but the direction mattered: Lower oil prices helped ease some inflation pressure and supported risk assets.

That was one reason equities moved higher despite a more hawkish Fed. Falling oil prices can act like a tax cut for consumers and businesses by reducing pressure at the gas pump, helping transportation-related industries, and softening inflation expectations. But investors should be careful about treating geopolitical relief as permanent. Energy markets can reprice quickly when supply routes, production, or diplomacy change.

Gold moved lower for the week as the U.S. dollar strengthened and rate expectations rose. That is the other side of the same macro story. Gold can benefit from uncertainty, but it can struggle when real rates rise or when investors believe the Fed will keep policy tighter for longer. Last week was a reminder that gold is not a one-direction hedge. It can help diversify portfolios, but it is still affected by rates, currency moves, and investor positioning.

From our perspective, gold remains a sensible diversifier. But, like every asset class, gold is most useful when evaluated as part of a broader portfolio process, not as a stand-alone bet on a single market outcome. It can respond well to stress and uncertainty, but it can also face pressure when monetary policy and the dollar move against it.

FPI is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, the Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (QGLDX). Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

The indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started the week 80% long, decreased exposure to 70% long on Monday, and then jumped to 110% long on Thursday to close the week. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index remained in a risk-off posture this week. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of its daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies have been varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments by participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 20% long, moved to cash on Tuesday’s close, and then moved back to 20% long on Thursday’s close to end the week. The Systematic Advantage strategy remained 90% long throughout the week. Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy started the week at 200% exposure and shifted to 0% exposure on Thursday. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Market Update 6/15/26

Tue, 16 Jun 2026 02:28:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks posted gains this past week. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.65%, the NASDAQ climbed 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 rallied 3.9%.

• Bonds: Bonds also did well. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) gained 0.6%, and the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) added 0.8%.

• Gold: Gold futures closed the week at $4,231.30, down $134 per ounce, or 3.07%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar fell 0.29%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Technical indicators are mostly positive for stocks, as are the strategies. The economic environment is classified as Normal, favoring gold and stocks from a return perspective. Volatility is High and Rising, a regime historically favorable for gold over other asset classes on a risk-adjusted-return basis.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The pause suggested in my last Market Update came to pass two weeks ago. But stocks managed to rally last Friday to finish the week on the positive side, inspired by the vaunted memorandum of understanding (MOU) on settling the Iranian conflict, along with excitement over the SpaceX IPO. Today (Monday, June 15), that rally continued.

As the previous chart makes clear, the S&P 500 Index fell to its 50-day moving average just before springing higher. The same occurred on the NASDAQ Composite’s weekly chart, where the 10-week moving average provided the support.

Geopolitical events have impacted stock prices throughout the year. First, the beginning of the Iran conflict sent stock prices reeling, only to have a cease-fire and repeated suggestions of an impending peace agreement lead the recovering equity indexes higher. Friday’s announcement of the MOU, followed by today’s setting of Friday as the signing date, has breathed fresh air into what was becoming a stale process.

Economic news has been mixed, with highlights (surging employment) and lowlights (increased inflation). Last week was more of the same.

Take inflation. The consumer price index for May was reported in line with higher expectations. But core inflation readings were below expectations, as the price of goods measured in the report actually declined instead of accelerating as expected.

Of course, with the peace agreement, the price of oil also fell. It is currently just below $80 per barrel after spending much of the second quarter over $100. Even before that, the price of gasoline here was below the $5-per-gallon high-water mark set in 2022.

The bottom line: Despite the unfavorable seasonality of mid-June, the combination of a stand-pat Federal Reserve meeting this week and a positive macro environment is likely to push the market higher to test its previous record highs in the short term.

Bonds

Bond yields remain stubbornly above their short-term moving average. Still, with the peace talks, yields have been falling for weeks and are about 25 basis points below their recent highs. Perhaps with the final signing of the MOU on Friday, we will get the downside breakout that would signal the beginning of a meaningful downtrend.

In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve on Wednesday as it meets to discuss the future direction of short-term rates. All indications are that, despite strong employment reports, the new Fed chairman has no appetite to raise rates at this meeting. The better-than-expected core inflation reports, as discussed above, and the peace deal give him some time and cover.

Government bonds have been rallying as yields have moved lower to test the moving average breakout point. Again, the long-term bond ETF (TLT) seems poised for a breakthrough. At the same time, the ETF representing the high-yield bond market (HYG) has broken to new highs, which is a good sign that the stock indexes may soon follow.

Gold

Gold attempted several breakouts above its moving average earlier this year, but it has since settled into an intermediate downturn and breached the lows set in March. The MOU announcement has caused the price of the yellow metal to reverse direction and rally, but further gains seem more dependent on resumed oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz than anything else.

Still, the case for further gold appreciation remains strong. Last week, many commentators opined that gold was oversold. The latest reports indicate that central banks resumed buying the precious metal in April. Those followed previous reports that some central banks (Turkey, for example) had liquidated or lent gold to raise funds to combat high oil prices after the beginning of the Iranian conflict.

Longer-term price appreciation in the metal was in the headlines last week with the start of the World Cup. The trophy awarded to the winners is made of gold. As the following chart shows, its value has soared with gold’s price gains over the years.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has tumbled along with the decline in interest rates. This has been relieving pressure on gold. The dollar also appears poised for a further breakdown if it falls below its recent support at the short-term moving average.

The indicators

The short-term technical indicators of future stock market price changes that I watch are now mostly positive. And our QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy has 70% exposure to the S&P 500 Index as of Monday’s close.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy moved out of stocks at the close on June 5. It will return to stocks at the close on June 26. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals for 2026—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

FPI’s intermediate-term tactical equity strategies remain mixed, with a positive bias. The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy has 20% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Systematic Advantage ended the week 90% net long. Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy moved back to its 200% exposure mode at the close on June 12. QFC Dynamic Trends also moved from its defensive posture in the Quantified Eckhardt Managed Futures Strategy Fund (QECTX) back into the 2X exposure of the Quantified STF Fund (QSTFX). Investing for the longer term, Classic continues 100% long equities.

Because the QFC Dynamic Trends, Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can employ leverage, the investment positions may exceed 100%.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure, one of our Market Regime Indicators, shows that markets are in a Normal economic environment stage (inflation and GDP are growing). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Rising reading. Since 2003, this environment favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. Still, stocks have the highest drawdown risk among the three asset classes, making gold the best risk-adjusted performer in this particular regime. Bonds have the lowest return, risk, and drawdown. The High and Rising combination has occurred 28% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 6/8/26

Tue, 09 Jun 2026 02:31:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks moved lower last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 declined 2.55%, the Russell 2000 lost 2.91%, and the NASDAQ Composite decreased by 4.65%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose from 4.45% to 4.55% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold fell 4.67% for the week but remained above $4,300 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks pulled back, led lower by semiconductor stocks, which had been on a strong run for the year until last week. The industry had seen high demand tied to AI, which helped lift share prices, leading the market to new highs this year. With valuations elevated, however, semiconductor shares came under pressure last week, weighing on the major indexes.

Companies reported robust earnings growth in the first quarter. Second-quarter earnings season is still several weeks away, but investors will be watching to see whether that strength continues. Investors are also still looking for further resolution in the Middle East, where concerns about regional stability and the potential impact on inflation remain part of the backdrop.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bond prices remained subdued as geopolitical tensions lingered and oil prices stay elevated, adding to concerns about inflation. Inflation has already moved higher in recent months, and readings could rise further if oil prices remain elevated or climb from current levels. That would make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower rates, which could keep pressure on bond prices.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets later this month. CME FedWatch currently shows that markets expect no rate change at the meeting. With inflation ticking up in recent months, the Fed may wait to see whether price pressures stabilize before adjusting rates.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 30% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 50% net long on Tuesday, 60% net long on Wednesday, 10% net long on Thursday, and 20% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was aggressive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to a defensive posture on Friday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals— is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 60% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 80% net long on Monday, 120% net long on Tuesday, 140% net long on Thursday, and 160% net long on Friday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week with 120% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 150% net long on Monday and to 120% net long on Tuesday.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so the investment positions may at times exceed 100%.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure is one of our Market Regime Indicators. It shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second-highest return but has also experienced high drawdowns in these environments.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a Low and Falling reading, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. The combination has occurred 32% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 6/1/26

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 02:23:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: Broad-based equity indexes finished higher for the week, with technology leadership again carrying the major averages to record territory. The S&P 500 gained 1.44%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.91%, the NASDAQ Composite climbed 2.39%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 1.77%.

• Fixed income: Interest rates moved lower this week as hopes for progress in the U.S.-Iran conflict helped ease some inflation concerns, though rates remain highly sensitive to oil prices. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield finished the month near 4.44%, down roughly 12 basis points for the week.

• Gold and commodities: Gold finished modestly higher for the week after a late-week bounce, while oil remained the more important macro story. Gold ended May at $4,540.26 per ounce, while Brent crude settled near $92 per barrel after falling late in the week on hopes for an extension of the U.S.-Iran truce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

The equity market continued to climb the wall of worry last week, as it has for much of the spring. The S&P 500 finished higher for the ninth week in a row and closed May in record territory.

Leadership was again heavily influenced by technology and AI-related names. Dell Technologies rose 30% on earnings, showing that companies able to connect the AI story to revenue, earnings, and forward guidance continue to attract investor attention.

At the same time, economic data remained mixed. April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3.8% from a year earlier, while core PCE climbed 3.3%. Both remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Consumer spending increased 0.5% in nominal terms, but real PCE rose only 0.1%. That suggests households are still spending, but inflation is accounting for much of the increase in the headline numbers. Initial jobless claims rose to 215,000 in the week ending May 23. That is still low by historical standards, but it is a reminder that the labor market is no longer as tight as it was.

The equity market is balancing two ideas. The first is that the economy is still growing, corporate earnings remain resilient, and AI-related capital spending continues to create opportunities. The second is that inflation is not fully contained, oil prices remain a major swing factor, and the Fed has little room to declare victory.

For investors, this is where process matters. A rules-based approach does not need to predict every headline out of Washington, Tehran, the Fed, or the Technology sector. It simply needs to respond to what the market is actually doing. Right now, the market continues to reward growth and momentum, but risks below the surface make it important to have a plan for changing conditions.

Fixed income

Treasurys had another choppy week, but yields moved lower. The 10-year Treasury yield finished May near 4.44%, down roughly 12 basis points for the week. That move was largely tied to the same issue driving commodities: whether the U.S.-Iran conflict would continue to pressure oil prices and inflation expectations, or whether some form of truce could reopen supply routes and take pressure off energy markets.

The bond market is trying to digest a difficult mixture of data. Inflation is still too high, with PCE running above the Fed’s target. Consumer spending remains positive, but real income and real spending data suggest household pressure is building. The labor market is not breaking, but it is also not as tight as it was. In that environment, each new inflation report, labor report, and oil headline can move rate expectations.

This mix of data highlights why we think bonds continue to have a role in portfolios. But investors should be careful about assuming they will always provide a smooth offset to equity volatility. The experience of 2022 is still a reminder that fixed income can become a source of volatility when inflation and rates are moving in the wrong direction. We are not coming off a zero-interest-rate policy today, which changes the environment. But the message is similar: Fixed income can diversify risk, but it still needs to be managed and adaptive to the current market regime.

Gold and commodities

The war in Iran continued to keep Brent crude top of mind for investors. Brent crude finished the week near $92 per barrel after hopes for a potential extension of the U.S.-Iran truce helped ease some concerns about supply disruptions.

Gold remained firm late in the week, ending May at $4,540.26 per ounce. Gold was still down for the month, but the late-week rebound showed that investors continue to view it as a hedge against uncertainty, even if higher real rates and a stronger dollar can create periodic headwinds.

From our perspective, gold still makes sense as a diversifier. But last week was another reminder that it is not a magic asset. It can benefit from uncertainty, but it can also come under pressure when rates or the dollar move higher.

The indicators

QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started the week 50% long, then moved to cash on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it increased to 70% long before moving to 90% on Thursday. It then scaled back to 30% long to close the week.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index spent the week in its risk-on posture. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available after login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments—participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 40% long and moved to 60% long on Tuesday’s close. It dropped back to 40% long on Wednesday’s close and ended the week at 60% long after increasing exposure on Thursday’s close. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 120% long and increased exposure to 150% long on Tuesday’s close. It dropped back to 120% long on Friday’s close to end the week. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy spent the week in cash. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Our Classic model was fully “risk-on” all week. Most Classic accounts follow a signal that can change exposure within a week, though a few remain on platforms requiring up to a month to adjust to new signals.

Market Update 5/26/26

Wed, 27 May 2026 02:19:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks were higher last week. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.48%, the S&P 500 added 0.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.18%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 2.75%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.59% to 4.56% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold lost 0.68% last week, closing above $4,600 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks remain near their highs for the year, showing strength after a volatile first quarter. Optimism around AI, hopes for a recovery in oil supply, and better-than-expected corporate earnings have helped restore investors’ confidence in current valuations, allowing the market to reach new highs this quarter.

FactSet’s Earnings Insight report shows that more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter results so far, with most posting better-than-expected earnings. Earnings growth has also been strong, with the blended rate at 28.4%—the highest level in years. Valuations for the Index remain above historical averages.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Bonds have not seen the same strength as stocks in recent weeks. The bond market has been trending lower since late February. Fixed-income investors may be wary of potentially higher inflation given recent oil disruptions. The transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair could also be influencing investors’ expectations for where the market goes from here.

The Federal Open Market Committee did not meet this month. Its next scheduled meeting is in mid-June. The CME FedWatch currently shows that the market strongly expects no rate change at the meeting. Inflation has ticked up in recent months, so the Fed may monitor whether price pressures stabilize before adjusting rates in either direction.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

Flexible Plan Investments (FPI) is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, The Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund, formerly The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 0% exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 20% net long on Monday, 80% net long on Wednesday, and 50% net long on Thursday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was defensive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to an aggressive posture on Friday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index is available—with all of the daily signals—post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 60% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 20% net long on Monday and 40% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy held a 120% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

Market Update 5/18/26

Tue, 19 May 2026 02:08:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Stocks finished mixed this past week. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.1%, the NASDAQ declined 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 Index fell 2.4%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both hit all-time highs again this week, signaling that stocks remain in a long-term uptrend.

• Bonds: Bonds got pummeled. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fell 1.2%, and the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tumbled 2.8%.

• Gold: Gold futures closed the week at $4,551.50, down $179.20 per ounce, or 3.79%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week down 6.73%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index fell just 0.85%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 1.43%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Technical indicators are mostly positive for stocks, as are the strategies. The economic environment is classified as Normal, favoring gold and stocks from a return perspective. Volatility is Low and Falling, a regime historically favorable for stocks over other asset classes on a return basis, although bonds hold the top rank over stocks and gold on a risk-adjusted basis.

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For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

Although stock market indexes were mixed last week, the bellwether S&P 500 Index continued to rise, posting its seventh straight week of gains. The S&P 500 was the only major index to post a seventh straight weekly gain, but the other major indexes had six-week winning streaks last week. Many market pundits suggested that this could signal a blow-off market top, but market history does not support this interpretation.

Bespoke Investment Group went back to the creation of the Russell 2000 in 1979 and found only 10 times when the Russell, S&P 500, and NASDAQ had simultaneous six-week winning streaks. One week and one month later, the S&P was higher 60% of the time. Six months and one year later, the S&P had gained ground 90% of the time. The strongest gains occurred when the Index was higher after the first week following the signal—like this time.

But does the S&P 500’s current seven-week winning streak suggest a blow-off top? Again, turning to history, the answer is probably not.

According to SentimenTrader,* the S&P has had 37 seven-week winning streaks since it was created in 1928. A review of that 98-year history shows that, on average, the market was up about 1.5% one month later, rising 76% of the time. One year later, the Index was up an average of 9.7%, gaining ground in 84% of the occurrences.

Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, positive earnings and economic reports have pushed stocks higher. For example, more than 70% of reported earnings and revenues this quarter have beaten analyst estimates. Retail sales, employment, and manufacturing production have shown similar strength.

Two possible flies, however, have appeared in the stock bulls’ ointment. First, reports of rising inflation due to higher oil costs have pushed interest rates higher, which is a negative for stocks. Second, while the indexes have been hitting new highs, lately those highs have not been matched by similar price action by the majority of stocks.

As the following chart shows, the April round of new highs was matched by a new high in the cumulative number of advancing over declining stocks in the Index. But last week’s new highs saw this advance-decline line fail to come anywhere close to those levels. Such a disparity has often heralded a market decline. However, a correction sparked by such a disparity can take quite a while to develop. For example, with the dot-com top in March 2000, the disparity between the two occurred two years earlier.

The bottom line: While price action, earnings, and economic reports remain positive and supportive of higher stock prices in the future, the stock market has been driving higher for quite a while and is now substantially overbought. Given the recent breakout in interest rates, a pause may be in order, especially just before or after the upcoming period of positive Memorial Day seasonality.

Bonds

As I reported in my early April Market Update, bond prices have broken out above the topping formation first established in January this year. I noted at that time, “This is a warning to stock and bond investors alike.”

I also remarked that it was unlikely that the Fed would intervene and reduce rates further. That seems even more likely now. The Middle East conflict has sent oil prices higher, and the specter of higher interest rates is weighing heavily on financial markets. The move higher in rates is clear in the previous chart, and Friday’s move higher was a dramatic breakout above previous highs.

Of course, last week’s higher-than-expected CPI report did not help matters, causing at least two members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to suggest that higher rates were in order. The move higher in inflation was confirmed by the PPI readings as well. It was almost the worst reading ever, second only to those recorded during the 2021–2022 period under the previous administration. Truly a bipartisan problem.

This time around, though, the cause of the increase was not legislation-induced supply-side pressure and a resulting rise in the price of goods. As suggested earlier, a reading of the report places the blame clearly on the price of oil. The former is more stubborn and did take a rise in interest rates by the Fed to try to control it. But the current oil shock is unlikely to be responsive to Federal Reserve action. It can only be reversed by an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, over which the Fed has no control. As the new Fed chair is well aware, this can happen quickly, but only by the actions of others. Stay tuned for that.

In any event, as a result of all this, interest rates have been rising, and bond prices have been falling.

Meanwhile, the high-yield bond market continues to track stocks higher. But as the following chart shows, the index of these bonds has also failed to confirm the new highs in stocks made last week.

Gold

Gold has continued to trade below its declining 50-day moving average. So far, that average has proved to be a difficult barrier to a resumption of the yellow metal’s rally, rebuffing an upside breakout three times since the decline began in January. Still, gold remains well above the lows registered in March.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been trading in a narrow range since its quick ascent at the start of the Iran conflict. The fact that it has not moved higher still is good news for gold investors, as gold normally falls in the face of a rising dollar.

FPI is the subadviser to the only U.S. gold mutual fund, the Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (QGLDX), formerly The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

The indicators

The short-term technical indicators of future stock market price changes that I watch are now mostly positive. Yet our QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy had just 20% exposure to the S&P 500 Index as of Monday’s close.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index (PSI) strategy moved out of stocks at the close on May 8 and will return to the stock market at the close on May 22. It will remain fully invested until June 5. Thereafter, it will be defensively invested for most of June. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals for 2026—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

FPI’s intermediate-term tactical equity strategies remain mixed, with a defensive bias. The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy has a 20% net short exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Systematic Advantage ended the week 120% net long. Our QFC Self-Adjusting Trend Following strategy continues in its defensive mode. QFC Dynamic Trends also moved to a defensive posture in the Quantified Eckhardt Managed Futures Fund (QECTX). Investing for the longer term, Classic continues 100% long equities.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a Low and Falling reading. Since 2003, this environment favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. Gold has the highest drawdown risk among the three asset classes. Bonds have the lowest return, risk, and drawdown. The Low and Falling combination has occurred 32% of the time since 2003.

*Sundial Capital Research (SentimenTrader.com) is an independent market research and analysis provider. SentimenTrader’s research and views are not investment/trading advice and do not endorse or promote any external investment strategies. All opinions and analyses are based on publicly available data. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Market Update 5/11/26

Tue, 12 May 2026 03:15:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: The broad-based indexes finished higher for the week. The S&P 500 gained 2.36% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.25%, the NASDAQ Composite climbed 4.52%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 1.73%.

• Fixed income: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly last week, ending at 4.36%.

• Gold and commodities: Gold, while off its highs, performed well last week, rallying 2.19% to close above $4,700 per ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Our strategies were active last week, looking to establish or continue long or leveraged positions. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

According to Bespoke Investment Group, the shape of the recent market rally has changed from a “V” to a check mark. Its research suggests that this type of rally can become heavily overextended before leveling off, forming a new base, and eventually moving higher. The following chart highlights that pattern in the S&P 500, showing downturns and recoveries since 2023.

Bespoke noted that this pattern is important for longer-term bulls. Based on some of last week’s economic data, that still appears to be the base case. The data showed some cooling, but the broader economy continues to hold up.

The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index slowed from 54 to 53.6, but any reading above 50 indicates an expansion. That suggests the services industry remains resilient despite recent inflationary pressures.

The labor market also remains strong, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.

Together, these factors may be helping investors look past some geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns. Oil prices remain a major factor and have been heavily influenced by the war in Iran. If tensions stay elevated, inflation could prove stickier, potentially affecting how the Federal Reserve approaches interest rates. The Fed has continued to hold rates steady.

For investors, it is important to keep two possible paths in mind. In the first, the war in Iran does not spill over into broader global economic or market weakness, and markets continue to advance on new technologies. That kind of environment may favor strategies designed to participate in technology-driven momentum while still using a defined, rules-based process. Flexible Plan Investments recently launched FlexDirex, a single-stock-ETF-focused strategy designed to capture momentum in companies on the cutting edge of technology. The strategy can use leverage to participate in rapidly developing shifts among some of the largest technology companies in the world.

In the second, artificial intelligence does not generate the expected economic growth, or the war in Iran drags on, keeping energy prices high and slowing the global economy.

In either environment, a rules-based investment approach can help investors reduce emotion, focus on facts and data, and stay disciplined.

Fixed income

Treasurys remained choppy with little clear direction. The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.36%, down from 4.37% the week before.

The bond market seems to be digesting a difficult mix of data. On one hand, parts of the economy seem to be cooling. Job openings were roughly unchanged in March, and the labor market is not as tight as it has been. On the other hand, hiring remains positive, and unemployment is still historically low. Meanwhile, oil prices remain a threat to inflation and to parts of the global economy that are sensitive to travel and transportation costs.

For now, fixed income should continue to have a role in investor portfolios, especially as a diversifier. But investors should remember that bonds do not always offset volatility. In 2022, for example, rates rose sharply, and bonds struggled. We think today’s environment is different, especially because rates are not coming off of zero interest rate policy. Still, the choppy movements in fixed income indicate ongoing concern about the inflation outlook.

Gold and commodities

We usually focus on gold in the Market Update, and we will provide an update here. But oil remains the main commodity story. Brent crude finished the week near $101 per barrel, while Brent and West Texas Intermediate both declined on hopes that de-escalation in Iran would ease supply issues. Those hopes faded when President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the U.S. peace proposal and referred to the ceasefire as “on life support.”

Gold remained firm, closing the week at $4,715.25 per ounce, up 2.19% from $4,614.21 the week before.

Gold and oil are sending different but related messages to the market. Oil represents an inflation risk, while gold continues to serve as a hedge against uncertainty. When the two move together, the macro backdrop becomes more complicated.

From our perspective, gold still makes sense as a diversifier, but last week was another reminder that it can benefit from uncertainty.

FPI is the subadviser to the only U.S. Gold Mutual fund, the Quantified Gold Futures Tracking Fund (QGLDX), formerly The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to track the daily price changes in the precious metal in a more tax-efficient manner than its ETF counterpart, GLD.

The indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started the week in cash, then increased exposure to 50% long on Tuesday. On Friday, it dropped to 20% long to close out the week.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index started the week risk-on but shifted to a risk-off posture at Friday’s close. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category).

Our intermediate-term tactical strategies have varied in their degree of defensive positioning. The key advantage these strategies offer investors is their ability to adapt to changing market environments—participating during uptrends and moving to a defensive posture during downtrends.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 40% long, moved to 60% long on Tuesday’s close, dropped back to 40% long on Thursday’s close, and ended the week 60% long. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 60% long, increased to 90% long on Monday’s close, returned to 60% long on Wednesday’s close, and moved to a 120% leveraged position on Thursday’s close, where it remained through the end of the week. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy remained fully long at 200% exposure throughout the week. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Market Update 5/4/26

Tue, 05 May 2026 02:56:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: The major U.S. stock market indexes were higher last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.55%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.92%, the Russell 2000 Index advanced 1.00%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index added 1.12%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.31% to 4.39% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold fell 2.02% last week, closing above $4,600 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is Low and Falling, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks continued the rally that began at the end of March, reaching a new 52-week high last week. The move higher has occurred alongside easing tensions in the Middle East and strong earnings results from Wall Street. Excitement around AI has returned to the forefront, and share prices of many AI-related companies have soared over the past month.

FactSet’s Earnings Insight report shows that over 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter results so far, with most posting better-than-expected results. Earnings growth has also been strong, with the blended earnings rate sitting at 27.1%, which would be the highest level of earnings growth seen in years. Valuations for the Index remain above historical averages.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

Bonds dipped again over the past couple of weeks. While geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices remain elevated, and bond investors are uncertain about the inflation outlook, leading to weakness in the market. Higher oil prices can feed into prices elsewhere in the economy, potentially making it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the near future.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee held its final regularly scheduled meeting before Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair ends May 15. As expected, the Committee left interest rate targets unchanged. Another rate hold is expected at the Fed’s next meeting in June. Kevin Warsh has been nominated to serve as the next Fed chair, but the Senate has not yet confirmed his nomination.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with an 80% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 70% net long on Monday, 50% net long on Tuesday, 70% net long on Wednesday, and 0% exposure on Thursday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was defensive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to an aggressive posture on Wednesday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 60% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 40% on Tuesday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy held a 60% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 200% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

Market Update: First-quarter 2026 recap

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 18:31:00 GMT

Market stalls as uncertainty rises

The first quarter of 2026 began with stocks moving sideways, a trend that has persisted since late last year. Volatility rose as global disputes increased and market valuations stayed high. AI optimism remains but is curbed by uncertainty, so stocks did not climb much over the last quarter. By quarter-end, the S&P 500 had fallen a few percentage points.

Energy was the top sector for the quarter, the only sector to deliver double-digit gains. In contrast, Information Technology, Communication Services, Health Care, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors each posted losses. International equities outperformed domestic equities.

Bonds fell slightly this quarter. The Federal Reserve paused its rate cuts, keeping rates unchanged in January and March after lowering them last December.

Gold stayed strong in the first quarter, in sharp contrast to stock and bond losses. Many of our strategies invest in gold and have benefited from these gains.

Recognizing the stagnating market performance, many of our strategies shifted exposures away from non-defensive positions compared to the end of last year. However, overall positioning remained fairly aggressive at quarter-end. Among our QFC, ETF, and Axos platform strategies:

• 68% of our equity strategies had over 90% in non-defensive asset exposures

• 38% of such bond strategies had over 50% in non-defensive asset exposures

• 95% of our core strategies had over 50% in non-defensive asset exposures

• 86% of our alternative strategies had over 50% in non-defensive asset exposures

So far this year, returns have been better in the alternative space than in equity markets. That is why our strategies have been designed to adjust as conditions change—maintaining exposure when opportunities are present and emphasizing risk management and diversification when momentum pauses. It is also why we recommend diversifying across multiple strategies or using our turnkey strategies, such as our Multi-Strategy Portfolios. These portfolios prepare and reallocate among strategies for you. In markets, as in any competitive environment, long-term success depends less on any single quarter and more on executing a disciplined process through changing conditions.

Market Update 4/20/26

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 02:13:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: The major U.S. stock market indexes moved higher last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.19%, the S&P 500 rose 4.55%, the Russell 2000 advanced 5.57%, and the NASDAQ Composite added 6.84%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.31% to 4.26% last week.

• Gold: Spot gold rose 1.70% last week, closing above $4,800 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Stocks have staged an impressive rebound, reaching new all-time highs. Investor fears eased significantly after Iran signaled a willingness to negotiate with the United States to bring the conflict in the Middle East to a close. Talks between the two countries have focused in part on the extent to which vessels will be able to move through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route, particularly for crude oil.

With the prospect of calmer international relations in the near future, investors are also keeping an eye on AI developments. Productivity gains from those developments could help support corporate earnings. First-quarter 2026 earnings season is now underway. FactSet’s Earnings Insight report shows that most of the 10% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have posted better-than-expected results. Earnings growth has also been strong, with the blended rate in the double digits. Even so, valuations for the Index remain above historical averages.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

While not as strong as stocks, bonds also rallied last week. Easing tensions in the Middle East and an improved outlook for energy supplies reduced concerns about future inflation and helped lift bond prices.

Even with the improved inflation outlook, CME Group data still suggests the Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged at its April meeting next week. In fact, current expectations point to no rate changes in the near term. Market pricing shows a high probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave rates unchanged at its remaining meetings this year. The Fed appears to view current rate levels as appropriate for balancing its goals of stable prices and maximum employment.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 90% net short exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 110% net short on Monday, 90% net short on Tuesday, 120% net short on Wednesday, 170% net short on Thursday, and 150% net short on Friday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was aggressive at the beginning of the week, then shifted to a defensive posture on Friday. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 20% net short exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 0% on Monday, 20% net long on Tuesday, and 60% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week with a 30% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 60% net long on Thursday, then moved back to 30% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following Strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long going into the week. Exposure changed to 200% net long the NASDAQ 100 on Monday.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure is one of our Market Regime Indicators. It shows that we are in a Normal economic environment stage (meaning a positive monthly change in prices and a positive monthly change in GDP). Historically, a Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been a positive regime state for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have the highest rate of return in Normal periods. Gold has the second highest return but has also experienced high drawdown in these environments.

Market Update 4/13/26

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 02:23:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: Equities posted a strong week overall, but by Friday the tone shifted as investors weighed a hotter inflation backdrop against still-fragile geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 3.58%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.07%, the NASDAQ Composite climbed 4.68%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 3.99%.

• Fixed income: The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.32% for the week.

• Gold and commodities: Energy sold off on hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Gold gained 1.56% as the U.S. dollar weakened.

• Market indicators and outlook: Our strategies were not very active last week, with minimal trading and generally low exposures. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold, but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Last week’s U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture from a macro standpoint. The ISM Services PMI came in at 54.0 versus the expected 54.8, showing that the service side of the economy is still expanding, though at a slower pace. Private-sector employment added 62,000 jobs in March, according to ADP. The durable goods report was mixed: Core durable goods were up 0.8%, while headline durable goods fell 1.4%. Meanwhile, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 17–18 meeting reinforced that the Fed is still closely watching inflation and the broader macro outlook.

The March consumer price index (CPI) showed inflation is still running hot. CPI rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year, while core CPI increased 0.2% month over month. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment fell to 47.6, and inflation expectations rose to 4.8%.

In our view, that combination matters because it helps explain why equities rallied last week. Oil prices fell sharply, and investors leaned into the idea that a ceasefire framework with Iran might reduce some of the immediate pressure on growth and inflation. But the data also showed that inflation is still not comfortably behind us, especially with energy remaining such a large swing factor. In other words, the market enjoyed some relief, but it did not gain much clarity.

That keeps the equity backdrop a little more balanced than euphoric. Investors were willing to look past hotter headline inflation because energy prices eased and hopes grew that the worst of the geopolitical shock might be behind us. Still, soft sentiment, firmer inflation, and ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz suggest caution. As of this writing, the situation has shifted again, with the U.S. launching its own blockade of Iran’s blockade. Still, the market is currently digesting this information and taking it in stride.

These geopolitical tensions are unfolding at a time when equity valuations are quite stretched. Bespoke Investment Group noted that the average Shiller P/E ratio by decade is currently at its highest level. While this doesn’t mean a correction, recession, or bear market is imminent, it does suggest that equities could face a tough patch without much of a spark.

For investors, the key question is how to manage that risk. Passive investments tend to do well during sustained uptrends, such as from the 2010s through today, but preparing for more volatile conditions is important. Having a plan in place before markets turn can help investors avoid emotional decisions when volatility rises.

Fixed income

Treasurys were choppy last week, but yields ultimately moved slightly higher as investors worked through stronger inflation data and modest demand at longer-dated auctions. The 10-year Treasury yield started the week around 4.31% and finished Friday near 4.32%, with yields climbing after the CPI report.

That reaction makes sense when you look at the macro data. Core personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.4% month over month, CPI rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year, personal income unexpectedly fell 0.1%, and final fourth-quarter GDP came in at 0.5% versus the expected 0.7%. So, the bond market had to absorb a mix of still-sticky inflation and somewhat softer growth. That is not the kind of backdrop that gives fixed income a clean, obvious direction.

For now, bonds still look capable of providing some stability, but they are not behaving like a perfect hedge. When inflation data runs hot, especially with energy driving much of the move, yields can still rise even if growth is slowing beneath the surface.

Our concern remains the same: The risk is not that bonds stop mattering, but that they have a harder time delivering immediate ballast when inflation fears or economic turmoil rise again. If oil remains volatile and the equity market continues to rethink how many Fed cuts are realistically left this year, fixed income may still offer some defense, just not always on the timetable investors would prefer.

Gold and commodities

Commodities calmed somewhat last week, at least compared with the sharp moves seen earlier. Oil was again the main story, but not for the same reason. Brent crude settled at $95.20, down more than 12% for the week. The decline followed optimism around a temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire arrangement and hopes that tensions in the region might ease, even though conditions around the Strait of Hormuz remained unsettled.

Gold held up better than it had in prior weeks, closing the week at $4,749.75 per ounce, up 1.56%. That is notable because gold previously struggled against a stronger dollar and higher real yields. Last week, a weaker dollar and a more cautious view of the ceasefire’s durability helped support prices.

The bigger takeaway is that commodities are still doing most of the macro talking right now. Oil remains the more direct channel for inflation pressure, while gold is reacting more to the second-order effects through the dollar, rates, and broader investor confidence. If oil continues to cool, that may relieve some pressure on inflation expectations.

From our perspective, gold still makes sense as a diversifier, but last week was another reminder that it does not move in a vacuum. Gold can benefit from uncertainty, but it also has to contend with real yields, Federal Reserve expectations, and dollar strength. In other words, it can still help in a broader allocation, but investors should not expect it to respond to every geopolitical headline in a straight line.

The indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week 60% long, cut exposure to 10% long on Tuesday, shifted to 40% short on Thursday, and further reduced exposure to 90% short on Friday’s close. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index maintained a risk-on posture throughout the week. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started and ended the week 20% long. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 60% long, then reduced exposure to 30% long at Thursday’s close and remained there through the end of the week. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy started and ended the week in cash. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Market Update 4/7/26

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:12:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: Despite the four-day week, the major stock indexes posted their first strong performance in some time. The S&P 500 advanced 3.4%, the NASDAQ rallied 4.4%, and the Russell 2000 rose 3.3%.

• Bonds: Bonds also did well. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) rose 1.0%, and the 20-year Treasury bond ETF (TLT) gained 1.75.

• Gold: Gold futures closed the week at $4,696.60, up $172.30 per ounce, or 3.81%. The Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.13%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Technical indicators are mostly positive for stocks, as are the strategies. The economic environment is classified as Normal, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The stock market rallied strongly over the holiday-shortened week, in line with seasonal tendencies. However, as the chart above illustrates, those gains were not enough to move the market out of the downtrend that has been in place since the February highs.

In addition, the important 200-day moving average that I described as support in my last Market Update was subsequently broken, confirming the downtrend. That same moving average now becomes resistance, which could impede any reestablishment of an uptrend. The chart shows that we are at that resistance level.

Of course, the market downturn relates to the geopolitical consequences of the Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices substantially higher. As shown in the following chart, that surge has been accompanied by a decline in stock prices. Until the uncertainty surrounding the conflict is resolved, this relationship is likely to continue. At the moment, this seems to be a short-term manifestation, but hang on for the next chapter.

Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, a number of economic reports continue to clarify the health of the U.S. economy. And these reports are exceptionally good.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for March was stronger than expected, though we saw a rise in prices paid. That could be an inflationary concern. With the increase in oil prices, that result is not surprising.

Last week also brought very strong employment data. Nonfarm payrolls were substantially stronger than forecast, which has historically been associated with higher stock prices over the intermediate term. With that report came yet another downtick in the unemployment rate. Reflecting those positive trends, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level since 2022.

The good news was not confined to these economic sectors. A review of recent economic reports (Bespoke Diffusion Index) shows one of the highest levels on record for reports beating forecasts—second only to the post-COVID recovery period in October 2020.

The market has remained in the oversold status noted in my previous update. In fact, it has been in that state for more than 19 consecutive days. Historical data since 1953 suggest that such periods tend to occur near market lows, although weakness can persist for one to three additional months. However, in all of those instances, stocks were higher 12 months later, with an average gain of 15% (see the following chart).

We can also check all past 12-month periods of market history to determine which most resembles the last 12 months. Currently, Bespoke Investment Group finds the best match to be September 1998 through September 1999. Following that period, the S&P posted gains over the subsequent one-, three-, six-, nine-, and 12-month periods, with a maximum drawdown of just 2.34%.

Finally, since 1990, April has been the second-best month of the year for stocks, generating profits over 70% of the time. So perhaps we should chalk up last week’s strong performance simply to that. But in addition, it is rare for March to end with a gain of more than 1% on its final day and for that to be followed by a gain of more than 1% on the first trading day in April. It has happened just four times since 1991. In each instance, the NASDAQ rose over the following three and 12 months, with a maximum drawdown of just 6.29%.

The bottom line: We are largely at the mercy of the geopolitics of our time. As long as these forces drive oil prices higher, we can expect the established downtrend in equity prices to continue. But if the current conflict eases, many factors are aligned to take stock prices quickly higher.

Bonds

Since my last Market Update, bond prices have broken out above the topping formation first established in January of this year. As with stocks, that yield level is now acting as support for the new, higher range of bond yields. As a result, yields have moved to new intermediate-term highs, only to quickly decline back to those prior peak levels. From there, they have moved higher once again. This is a warning to stock and bond investors alike.

Like stocks, bond yields are tied to the ebb and flow of the present geopolitical environment. In addition, fundamental forces make it unlikely that the Federal Reserve will intervene and further reduce rates. Higher oil prices point to renewed inflationary pressure, while improving employment data suggest continued economic strength. Both work against near-term Fed easing, and, in turn, against the interests of bond investors. Hence, bond prices have been falling.

Meanwhile, the high-yield bond market continues to track stocks. It got a bit of a bounce last week but remains in a downtrend.

Gold

While gold has historically provided defense for portfolios when stocks have declined, it has so far failed to in the current environment. It has, however, moved back above its intermediate-term moving average.

Mark Haefele, Wall Street strategist and chief investment officer for UBS Global Wealth Management, reiterated his bullish estimates for gold in a research note last week. UBS forecasts the precious metal will rise 35% to $6,200 an ounce by the end of June, before easing back to $5,900 an ounce by year-end, citing rising U.S. debt, de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical tensions as structural drivers.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has traded in a relatively narrow range following its quick ascent at the start of the Iran conflict. The fact that it has not moved higher is good news for gold investors, as gold typically falls in the face of a rising dollar.

The indicators

The short-term technical indicators of future stock market price changes that I watch are now mostly negative. Our QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy has just a 60% exposure to the S&P 500 Index as of Tuesday’s close.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index (PSI) strategy returned to the stock market at the close on Thursday, March 12. It will remain fully invested until April 17. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals for 2026—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

FPI’s intermediate-term tactical equity strategies remain mixed, with a defensive bias. Classic continues 100% long equities. The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy has a 20% net short exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Systematic Advantage ended the week just 60% net long. Meanwhile, our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy continues in its defensive mode. Although our volatility measure has improved, the primary STF signal remains negative on stocks. QFC Dynamic Trends has also moved to a defensive position in the Quantified Eckhart Managed Futures Fund (QECTX).

Because the QFC Dynamic Trends, Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following, and QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can employ leverage, the investment positions may exceed 100%.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Rising reading. Since 2003, this environment favors stocks over gold and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. Stocks have the highest drawdown risk among the three asset classes. Bonds have the lowest return, risk, and drawdown. The High and Rising combination has occurred 28% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 3/30/26

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 02:22:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: The major U.S. stock market indexes were mostly lower last week. The NASDAQ Composite fell 3.22%, the S&P 500 declined 2.10%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.90%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.47%.

• Bonds: The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose from 4.39% to 4.44%.

• Gold: Spot gold rose 0.04%, closing above $4,400 an ounce.

• Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Markets continued to decline amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Higher oil prices are seen as potentially destabilizing to the economy, and stocks are shifting from a sideways pattern toward a downward trend. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are now near the 10% drawdown level that signifies correction territory.

Strong fourth-quarter earnings and continued developments in AI technology have not been enough to support equity prices against the rising threat of inflation created by recent world events. It’s unclear if the downturn will end anytime soon without a corresponding improvement in geopolitical conditions.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished last week below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

The recent oil supply shock has also weighed on bond prices. After trending higher earlier this year, bonds have turned lower in recent weeks as inflation concerns have reemerged. Oil is a foundational commodity, and price changes can easily flow through to other goods in the broader economy. With oil prices rising sharply, investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may have limited room to cut interest rates.

The Fed last cut interest rates in December of last year. Since then, it has held rates steady while monitoring the effects of prior policy changes on inflation and unemployment. With inflation once again a key concern, there is growing skepticism that further rate cuts are likely in the near term.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for the end of April. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a high probability that rates will remain unchanged at the meeting.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal started the week with a 70% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 130% net long on Monday, 100% net long on Tuesday, and 80% net long on Friday.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index strategy was aggressive throughout the week. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 40% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure changed to 20% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week with a 30% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure changed to 60% net long on Wednesday.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 0% net long the NASDAQ 100 throughout the week.

Market Update 3/23/26

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 02:11:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: U.S. equities struggled for the fourth consecutive week. The S&P 500 fell around 1.87%, the NASDAQ Composite declined approximately 2.06%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 2.09%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell roughly 1.65%.

• Fixed income: Interest rates moved higher while bond prices sold off. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.38%, continuing its recent move higher.

• Gold and commodities: Energy continued to rally amid tensions in the Middle East. Gold posted its worst week since 2011, falling 10.50%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Our strategies generally remained exposed, though some began to show caution given the current market environment. Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment stage, which is historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Falling, which favors gold over bonds and then stocks.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Stocks attempted to stabilize last week, with a few brief rallies, but none gained traction. By Friday, selling pressure returned, and equities ended the week lower on rising oil prices, a cautious Federal Reserve, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. As a result, the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ each posted a fourth straight weekly loss, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index entered correction territory, down just over 10% from its all-time high.

The Federal Reserve is no longer providing the same level of support for markets. Until recently, markets closely monitored Fed announcements, driven by expectations of continued low rates, which helped funnel money into equities and push markets higher. Last week, the Fed left rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%, as expected, but struck a more cautious tone. Its statement noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, while job gains remain low and inflation is still somewhat elevated. That is not the kind of backdrop that gives investors confidence that easier policy is right around the corner.

Economic data was light during the week. February industrial production rose 0.2% following a 0.7% gain in January, suggesting that the supply side of the economy continues to expand, albeit at a slower pace.

Geopolitical developments remain a key factor. While the Trump administration has indicated that the conflict with Iran may be short-lived, Iran may view the situation differently. For Iran, particularly its leadership, the conflict is viewed as a significant threat. As a result, there is a risk that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could remain disrupted longer than expected.

Bespoke Investment Group noted, “While Saudi Arabia is exporting roughly 4.2mm barrels per day via the Red Sea and Iran’s exports appear unimpacted, roughly 15% of global supply is stuck because of a conflict that only looks to be intensifying.”

For investors, this underscores the uncertainty that geopolitical events can introduce into financial markets and the broader economy. In that kind of environment, investment decisions are best grounded in a disciplined, rational approach rather than driven by fear or emotion. Quantitative and systematic models can help by using historical data to inform decision-making. While the past does not repeat exactly, it can provide useful context for how markets may behave under similar conditions.

Fixed income

Treasurys sold off on geopolitical concerns and the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone. The move was fairly significant, with the 10-year yield rising from 4.28 to 4.38%.

That move aligns with the broader inflation picture. February producer prices rose 0.7%, following a 0.5% increase in January. The headline consumer price index (CPI) had already come in at 2.4% year over year, with core CPI at 2.5%. Inflation is no longer at peak levels, but it is not low enough for the market—or the Fed—to fully relax, especially with oil prices moving higher. Bonds remain stuck in an uncomfortable middle ground, where slower growth could matter later, but inflation still matters now.

Bonds appear to be providing some stability, but the bigger concern is the potential for broad, correlated sell-offs that impact both equities and fixed income. Ideally, bonds would act as a stabilizing force when equity markets decline. Recently, though, they haven’t held up as well, with inflation still slightly above trend.

Gold and commodities

Commodities led the way last week, driven largely by energy. Oil prices rose on rising concerns about Middle East supply and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude pushed higher, putting immediate pressure on inflation expectations. By Friday, Brent crude closed just over $112.

Gold, on the other hand, did not provide stability. The yellow metal lost 10.50% last week, declining from $5,019.49 to $4,492.42. Instead of benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty, it sold off. Higher yields and a stronger U.S. dollar added to the pressure. MarketWatch noted that gold suffered its worst weekly percentage decline since 2011.

Gold remains a valuable diversifier and has historically shown low correlation with stocks and bonds. However, this serves as a reminder that it is also sensitive to other macroeconomic factors, such as real rates and the U.S. dollar.

The indicators

QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started the week 140% long, increased to 170% long on Monday, dropped to 160% long on Tuesday, cut back to 20% on Thursday, and increased to 70% long on Friday. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index started and ended the week in its risk-on posture. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started and ended the week 40% long. The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week 60% long, moved to 30% long on Monday, returned to 60% long on Tuesday, and decreased to 30% long on Friday. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy started the week in cash, moved to 200% long on Tuesday, and moved back to cash on Thursday, where it remained for the rest of the week. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

FPI’s Growth and Inflation measure—one of our Market Regime Indicators—shows that we are in a Normal economic environment, defined by positive monthly changes in both prices and GDP. A Normal environment has occurred 75% of the time since 2003 and has been positive for stocks, bonds, and gold. Stocks have delivered the highest rate of return in Normal periods, while gold has ranked second but has also experienced high drawdowns.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Falling reading, which favors gold over bonds and then stocks from an annualized return standpoint. The combination has occurred 13% of the time since 2003. It is a stage of strong returns for gold.

Market Update 3/17/26

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 17:40:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Stocks: The major stock indexes posted losses again this past week. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the NASDAQ lost 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 declined 1.8%.

• Bonds: Bonds also had a rough time. The U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fell 0.9%, while the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) dropped 2.2%.

• Gold: Gold futures closed the week at $5,048.80, down $109.90 per ounce, or 2.65%. The Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.50%.

• Market indicators and outlook: Technical indicators are mostly positive for stocks, as are the strategies. The economic environment is classified as Normal, favoring stocks, bonds, and gold, but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Falling, a regime historically favorable for gold over other asset classes on a return basis, although bonds eke out the top rank over gold on a risk-adjusted basis.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

Volatility has increased this year, as evidenced by the rising VIX fear index. The stock market indexes have crested and turned lower at a rate nearly matching the rise in the VIX.

Although it’s been just three weeks since the S&P 500 Index reached a new high, stocks have fallen in each of those three weeks, bringing the Index below its 50-day moving average. It is now threatening to fall below its 200-day moving average—an even more important breach. The initial defense of this traditional bastion between a bull and bear market appears to have been successful. If the long-term uptrend is to remain intact, this level must hold and avoid being broken for more than a few days.

It is no coincidence that geopolitical events leading up to the Iranian attacks have contributed to the increased volatility in equities. With these developments occurring in the heart of the Middle East, oil prices have soared, and fears of inflation have increased. This, in turn, has pressured equities.

While the negative factors affecting stocks have been apparent over the last three weeks, the positives are less so. From a technical standpoint, the continued viability of the long-term uptrend is perhaps the most visible positive. Less visible has been the rapid deterioration of internal indicators. These have slipped significantly, even as the indexes remain within 5% of new all-time highs. This is a rare occurrence, and while it may fit the script of providing evidence for further declines in equity prices, a decent contrarian case can also be made.

First, as of Friday, the S&P 500 had fallen more than three standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. Second, advance-decline weakness had fallen to first-decile levels—the lowest possible. Third, new 52-week lows for both the S&P 500 issues and its sectors have risen to extremely high levels. In the past, each of these seemingly negative signals has led to contrarian outcomes rather than a continuation of the trend. In each case, a high percentage of historical occurrences have seen prices rebound. So far, this week has followed that precedent.

The bottom line: With conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices and interest rates, uncertainty abounds. The stock market seems likely to fall from here, but contrarian measures suggest a bounce first. Whether that successfully defends the long-term uptrend or instead proves to be a short-term bounce will likely depend on whether the conflict, which is driving the uncertainty, comes to a speedy end.

Bonds

Yields broke higher last week as rising oil prices dominated the headlines and cast doubt on the prospects for manageable inflation. Yields on the 10-year government bond rose back to their intermediate-term high-water mark. Monday’s action reversed precisely at that point. In the past, yields have been very range-bound and respectful of the trending highs and lows. So this could be the start of a new direction for rates, although they are also likely tied to the trend in oil prices and the Middle East conflict.

With rates rising, bond prices have been tumbling. However, like yields, they have reached support levels and may soon top their intermediate-term moving average.

Meanwhile, the high-yield bond market has fallen rapidly from its latest new high. Like stocks, though, it has fallen so quickly that the asset class has moved into oversold territory, an area from which it has historically moved higher.

Gold

While gold has historically provided defense for portfolios when stocks have declined, so far it has failed to do so. It has, however, stayed above its intermediate-term moving average, though it has been trading mostly below $5,000 per ounce during the three-week stock market decline.

The traditional contrarian relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar has continued. As the following chart shows, the dollar has moved higher alongside rising interest rates, while gold has fallen. To some extent, U.S. energy self-sufficiency may be contributing to a reemergence of the dollar’s safe-haven status during times of global uncertainty.

The indicators

The short-term technical indicators of future stock market price changes that I watch are now all negative. Our QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy, however, had a 160% exposure to the S&P 500 Index as of Tuesday’s close.

Our QFC Political Seasonality Index (PSI) strategy returned to the stock market at the close on March 12. It will remain fully invested until April 17. (Our QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals for 2026—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

FPI’s intermediate-term tactical equity strategies remain mixed with a positive bias. Classic continues 100% long equities. The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy finished the week at 40% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Systematic Advantage ended the week 60% net long. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy exited its defensive mode at the close on March 17. QFC Dynamic Trends also moved to 200% invested.

Our S&P volatility regime is registering a High and Falling reading. Since 2003, this environment favors gold over stocks and then bonds from an annualized return standpoint. Gold has the highest drawdown risk among the three asset classes. The High and Falling combination has occurred 17% of the time since 2003.

Market Update 3/9/26

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 14:13:01 GMT

Market snapshot

Stocks: The major U.S. stock market indexes were lower last week. The Russell 2000 fell 4.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.92%, the S&P 500 lost 1.99%, and the NASDAQ Composite decreased by 1.22%.
Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.97% to 4.15%.
Gold: Spot gold fell 2.03% last week, closing above $5,100 an ounce.
Market indicators and outlook: Market regime indicators show the market is in a Normal economic environment, historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Stocks

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the performance of the S&P 500, finished the week below its 50-day moving average but above its 200-day moving average.

Heightened tensions in the Middle East have led to a flurry of events in financial markets. Oil prices have surged amid supply concerns, and volatility has increased as uncertainty grows around potential developments. U.S. equity markets declined in response.

Investors had already been uneasy since late last year. Concerns that productivity gains from AI might not materialize as quickly as hoped contributed to the sideways market trend. A weak employment report released last Friday added to those concerns.

With most fourth-quarter 2025 earnings reports now behind us, investors will be watching the economy closely for impacts from the recent oil shock. The latest earnings numbers came in strong, but supply-chain disruptions could lead to greater uncertainty about 2026 profits. The market still hopes that advances in AI will translate into strong economic growth.

Bonds

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which tracks intermediate-term Treasury bonds, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Despite recent stock market volatility, bonds have not served in their traditional role as a safe-haven asset. Instead, they have pulled back alongside stocks. This could be due to inflation concerns driven by the spike in oil prices. Higher energy costs can ripple through the economy, potentially reducing the Federal Reserve’s willingness to lower interest rates.

The Fed left its target policy rate range unchanged at its January meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet next week to consider whether to adjust the policy rate. CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows investors currently assigning a high probability to no rate change at the meeting.

Gold

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which tracks the price of gold, finished the week above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

FPI’s indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy’s primary signal held a 200% net long exposure to the S&P 500 throughout the week.

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week with a 40% net long exposure to the NASDAQ 100. Exposure increased to 80% net long on Monday, declined to 60% net long on Wednesday, and returned to 40% net long on Thursday.

The Systematic Advantage strategy started the week with a 90% net long exposure to the S&P 500. Exposure decreased to 60% net long on Monday.

Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy’s primary signal was 200% net long the NASDAQ 100 going into the week. Exposure changed to 0% on Monday and returned to 200% net long on Wednesday.

Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ, Systematic Advantage, QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following, and the QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategies can all employ leverage, so the investment positions may at times exceed 100%.

Market Update 3/2/26

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 03:15:00 GMT

Market snapshot

• Equities: U.S. equities struggled last week on softer sentiment, geopolitical headlines, and renewed rate uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.42%, the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.28%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 decreased by 1.15%.

• Fixed income: Interest rates fell as investors moved toward safety and priced in a greater likelihood of rate cuts. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.94%.

• Gold and commodities: Gold gained 3.36%, and oil prices advanced amid renewed geopolitical concerns.

• Market indicators and outlook: Our strategies remained broadly bullish, with most models in risk-on positioning and several using elevated exposure. Market regime indicators point to a Normal economic environment, historically positive for stocks, bonds, and gold but with a substantial risk of a downturn for gold. Normal is one of the best stages for stocks, with limited downside. Volatility is High and Rising, which favors stocks over gold and then bonds.

***

For the latest information on our Quantified Funds, check out our weekly fund updates. You can also see the daily holdings of the funds here.

Equities

Stocks declined as investors weighed inflation data, labor market signals, and geopolitical developments.

The producer price index (PPI) was the key release. While consumer inflation has moderated, PPI came in firmer than expected, reminding markets that upstream pricing pressures have not fully disappeared. Persistent producer inflation can filter into consumer prices and corporate margins. The market reaction wasn’t dramatic, but it was enough to keep investors cautious about the pace of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Weekly unemployment claims remain relatively contained, suggesting the labor market has not meaningfully deteriorated, though the recent uptick supports the broader narrative of gradual economic slowing. Concerns about automation and AI also resurfaced following significant workforce reductions at Block Inc. In announcing layoffs of 4,000 of its 10,000 employees, CEO Jack Dorsey said, “The core thesis is simple. Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company.”

Leadership remained narrow. Growth and technology stocks saw intermittent pressure, particularly when yields attempted to stabilize midweek. Financials were mixed, and small caps struggled to gain traction as investors remained selective.

The price action reflected consolidation rather than panic selling. Trading volumes were elevated at times, but there was no evidence of systemic stress. The pullback appeared consistent with digestion following an extended advance earlier in the quarter.

Equities remain near historically elevated levels. Markets at these levels often require either a clear acceleration in growth or a decisive move lower in rates to push to new highs. Without that confirmation, digestion periods are common.

Geopolitical developments also drew attention. Over the weekend, the United States and Israel conducted coordinated strikes in Iran that targeted military and infrastructure assets and resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with retaliatory actions in the region. The exchanges were described as calibrated rather than escalatory, but they renewed concerns about instability in the Middle East. As of Sunday evening, futures reactions were contained, though energy prices firmed as investors reassessed geopolitical risk.

Fixed income

Treasurys strengthened as equities softened. The 10-year yield fell from 4.09% to 3.94%.

Bond investors appear to be pricing in slower growth rather than a resurgence in inflation. While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target, the trajectory has improved, giving fixed-income markets room to breathe.

The front end of the yield curve remains sensitive to policy expectations. Investors continue to debate when the Federal Reserve may begin easing. While consensus still centers around midyear, confidence in that timing has fluctuated week to week based on incoming data.

Lower yields helped offset equity weakness and supported broader financial conditions. Credit spreads remain contained, suggesting that risk aversion has not spread into funding markets.

For now, bonds are behaving as they traditionally do during periods of equity hesitation, offering ballast rather than volatility. As active managers, we believe fixed income can be used both structurally and tactically—increasing and decreasing exposure as trends and market conditions warrant.

Gold and commodities

Gold advanced 3.36% during the week, supported by lower real yields and geopolitical tension. The metal remains sensitive to shifts in rate expectations. As Treasury yields declined, gold strengthened.

Energy markets were also firm. Oil prices were volatile but ended higher as geopolitical concerns resurfaced, particularly in regions central to global supply chains. Even modest changes in perceived supply risk can move energy markets quickly.

Recent commodity moves appear driven more by positioning and headlines than by structural shifts in demand. That does not invalidate the moves, but it does suggest that volatility may remain elevated.

During risk-off periods, gold often attracts incremental flows. As developments in Iran continue, demand for gold and other metals may persist. However, geopolitically driven moves tend to be reactive, underscoring the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach when volatility rises.

The indicators

The QFC S&P Pattern Recognition strategy started and ended the week 200% long. Our QFC Political Seasonality Index began the week in its risk-off posture, switching to its risk-on posture on Thursday. (The QFC Political Seasonality Index—with all of the daily signals—is available post-login in our Weekly Performance Report section under the Domestic Tactical Equity category.)

The Volatility Adjusted NASDAQ strategy started the week 60% long, reduced exposure to 40% long on Tuesday’s close, returned to 60% long on Wednesday, and dropped back to 40% long on Friday’s close. The Systematic Advantage strategy started and ended the week 60% long. Our QFC Self-adjusting Trend Following strategy started the week 200% long, moved to cash on Tuesday’s close, and returned to 200% long on Wednesday’s close. These strategies can employ leverage, so their exposure may exceed 100% at times.

Market Update 2/23/26

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 03:17:00 GMT